Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

Harrisonburg, VA

Currently

Temperature 81°F
Feels Like 76.57°F
Humidity 61%
Pressure 1019mb
Wind 3.44mph from the SW
Clear sky 81°F Clear sky
Today Sunny then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 90°F Low: 69°F
Monday Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 91°F Low: 72°F
Tuesday Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 92°F Low: 74°F
Wednesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
High: 87°F Low: 70°F
Thursday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 77°F Low: 64°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will continue to build across the southeast today into the middle portion of the workweek, leading to a return of hot and humid conditions locally. A cold front arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night, leading to potentially unsettled weather. High pressure returns by late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An area of upper ridging will continue to influence the region locally today. Bermuda high pressure off to the east will allow Td's to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for today. This should keep heat headlines away for today in this area, with some places east of the Blue Ridge Mountains getting closer to the threshold, with mid to upper 90s expected. Cannot completely rule out an area further east reaching/exceeding criteria for an hour or two but confidence is low at this time.

Additionally, a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the return of heat and humidity across the area later today. Most of the area should stay mostly dry throughout the day but if a storm gets going, weak flow aloft may keep it going for a while and bring some appreciable rainfall to the outlooked area in a drought. Lows will fall back into the upper 60s out west to low to mid 70s further east towards the waters tonight with mostly dry conditions expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... For the start of the workweek, the Bermuda high will likely begin to break down and allow for increased moisture and humidity locally. Heat indices will be approaching at least Heat Advisory criteria, if not Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Highs right around 100 degrees will be possible for many areas, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge on Monday, with heat indices reaching 105 to 110 F where the Excessive Heat Watch resides. Shower and thunderstorm chances return for the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. There is some uncertainty with storm severity that day as a result of decaying MCS dropping down from the Great Lakes will play an important role in the potential for any severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon. It will be worth monitoring this trend over the next day or so if a more widespread severe potential will reside locally.

Additional heat headlines are becoming increasingly likely on Tuesday as well. The last few days, most models had the highest dewpoints on Tuesday, leading to the highest heat indices but there maybe a small decrease in the Td's compared to the last few days but nonetheless it will still be dangerously hot out there. Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist for the afternoon and evening hours before dissipating. Overnight lows will drop down into the upper 60s to low to mid 70s further east towards the waters.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper trough descending from Canada will drive a cold front toward the area Wednesday. Even if the front is delayed, falling heights will offer a better chance for convective initiation along the terrain and lee trough during the afternoon, progressing east through the evening. Flow aloft doesn't appear particularly strong, but may be enough when combined with the forcing and instability to produce a localized severe storm risk. With the ridge being suppressed along with increasing clouds, Wednesday may be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. However, dew points may be a touch higher, so heat index values of 100-110 remain possible, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

The position of the front will be important for convective initiation Thursday. The highest chances will be across central Virginia to southern Maryland, but it's possible most activity will be south of the CWA. Should enough instability develop, increased shear due to the orientation of the trough could support stronger storms. It is more likely that temperatures will return closer to normal Thursday with the front bisecting the area.

The front will likely stall southeast of the area through the end of the week as there won't be enough upper support to suppress the strong Bermuda high. We will be on the cool side of the boundary, meaning temperatures will remain closer to normal. There is more uncertainty in regards to the frontal position and any subsequent waves of low pressure. Friday appears to have the minimum in rain chances as high pressure builds to the north and the front reaches its southern extent. Moisture will work back northward over the weekend as the high to the north retreats.

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