Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

Harrisonburg, VA

Currently

Temperature 66°F
Feels Like 57.61°F
Humidity 97%
Pressure 1024mb
Wind 0mph from the N
Clear sky 66°F Clear sky
Today Mostly Sunny
High: 78°F Low: 64°F
Monday Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 82°F Low: 68°F
Tuesday Mostly Sunny
High: 84°F Low: 66°F
Juneteenth Mostly Sunny
High: 85°F Low: 66°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 86°F Low: 68°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure over New England will drift offshore through the week. A warm front over the Tennessee River Valley will lift northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic through Monday, marking the beginning of a prolonged period of heat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Other than some thin cirrus and a couple patches of river valley fog, conditions were clear across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning as high pressure builds.

The high - currently centered over New England - will drift offshore through tonight as a warm front lifts through. This will lead to south-southeasterly return flow and an increase in temperatures and humidity. Highs should be well into the 80s to around 90 for much of the area this afternoon, with warmer lows tonight compared to last night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging will build over the region aloft early this week as high pressure at the surface continues to drift offshore. The warm front will lift away from the region Monday. Given the increase in heat and humidity, and prior to the ridge aloft and associated subsidence increasing heading into midweek, there may be enough of a window for scattered showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge Mountains thanks to a develop lee surface pressure trough. Flow will be modest in the mid and upper levels and light in the low levels, so heavy downpours and localized gusty winds would be the main threats with any stronger storms.

Given the increase in heat and humidity and slow/chaotic storm motions in the vicinity of the terrain, some isolated heavy rain totals can't be ruled out. Depending on mesoscale evolution, some cells could drift into the central Shenandoah Valley toward evening. Otherwise, most of the time/area will be dry.

Increasing subsidence under the building ridge Tuesday should limit and shower and thunderstorm chances to eastern WV/western MD away from the center of the building ridge.

Temperatures will trend hotter each day, with lower 90s likely Monday and middle 90s Tuesday. Muggy nighttime temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s are expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A highly anomalous upper level ridge will remain in place along the East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Most guidance shows this ridge peaking out at around 600 decameters off to our north and east on Thursday. This ridge will flatten out later in the week, with the highest heights dropping to our south by next weekend. High pressure offshore at the surface will lead to continued south to southeasterly flow. As a result, a hot airmass will remain in place through the long term period. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 90s for most on both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60s (lower 70s in the urban centers).

The hottest conditions are expected from Friday into next weekend. Current forecasts call for highs in the upper 90s, with lower 100s a possibility. Overnight low temperatures will turn warmer as well, with lower 70s for most (mid-upper 70s in the urban centers). While it will be a bit humid, dewpoints will be lower than is typical of many heatwaves (mid-upper 60s in this event, vs low- mid 70s in some other events). This will keep heat index values relatively close to the air temperature (maybe a degree or two higher). Nonetheless, it will be a prolonged period of hot conditions this coming week, and those impacted by the heat should start taking precautions in advance.

Conditions are forecast to remain dry on Wednesday through Friday, with mostly sunny skies each day. Low end chances for a popup afternoon or evening thunderstorm will return by Saturday and Sunday.

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