|3.44mph from the NNE
... Low pressure will drift toward New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build in its wake late Sunday through Monday. Multiple waves of low pressure will approach from the Gulf Coast Tuesday through Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid afternoon, low pressure is located over the Eastern Shore and will be tracking northeastward toward New England through tonight. The steadier rain has exited to the northeast, although some patchy drizzle and fog lingers roughly near and northeast of the Potomac River. Clouds are breaking up to the southwest, but some locations will remain cloudy through sunset. Areas that see sun will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while cloudy areas may stay in the 40s.
As the low pulls away tonight, weak high pressure will build from the northwest. Winds will be light and variable with a weak pressure pattern. While lower clouds may clear out of most of the area by this evening, some mid level clouds may persist. This, in addition to a westerly background flow, causes some uncertainty in the redevelopment of fog and low clouds tonight. However, many guidance sources indicate this potential, and with saturated low levels, any fog that does develop may be dense. Some patchy light drizzle is possible as well, especially closer to the mountains. Overnight lows will be mild in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure at the surface will be over the area on Sunday while ridging builds aloft. If low clouds or fog develop overnight, it's possible this moisture could become trapped under a subsidence inversion amidst a weak wind field. That will make the difference between high temperatures in the 50s vs 60s. Even if low clouds aren't present, clouds around 4-6kft will likely outweigh the sun for much of the area.
High pressure will reposition to the north and east Sunday night into Monday. In response, light easterly flow will develop at low levels. An increasingly marine air mass will be transported into the area. As a result, low clouds and/or drizzle may form Sunday night. These low clouds may potentially linger through much of the day Monday, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Depending on how thick the cloud cover is, there could be a wide range of potential temperatures Monday, with ensemble guidance showing anywhere from the low 50s to just shy of 70 for highs.
Late Monday into Monday night, convergence and moisture will increase ahead of an area of low pressure lifting north from the Carolina coast. Rain is looking increasingly likely Monday night, especially near and east of the I-95 corridor.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Little change to previous extended forecast. There is the potential to encounter some precipitation is nearly every period.
A low pressure system over eastern North Carolina will move north along the coast toward our CWA Tuesday through midday Wednesday. Some rain and perhaps a gusty breeze will accompany it through the period. Temperatures are expected to be above to well above normal each day.
As this low pulls away from the East Coast, the next low pressure system and affiliated trough will make a move into our CWA Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. Again, rain chances seem like the primary precipitation type with this low. It seems to have more moisture and could produce higher amounts of rain during the midweek. Temperatures won't be as warm but should still be above normal Wednesday night and Thursday.
We could see a break in the rainfall between Thursday night and Friday afternoon, before system number three makes a run at us from the southwest. One thing to note is that between the Wednesday and Thursday system and the one arriving Friday night, there could be enough clearing, radiational cooling and cold air advection over our region that we have to watch for a wintry mix threat on the front side of the third system. Temperatures as of now should be above normal on Friday.