Scaly Mountain Weather

Scaly Mountain, NC

Currently

Temperature 54.39°F
Feels Like 53.58°F
Humidity 86%
Pressure 1020mb
Wind 1.99mph from the NE
Scattered clouds 54°F Scattered clouds
Today Sunny
High: 72°F Low: 49°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 70°F Low: 49°F
Friday Sunny
High: 72°F Low: 51°F
Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 70°F Low: 54°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 68°F Low: 56°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Wednesday: No major changes to the forecast. Most of the area remains under clear skies with a few patchy higher level clouds passing through. Forecast is on track for the day. Meanwhile, a quiet stretch continues as an omega blocking pattern churns across the CONUS. The the north, an unsettled trough and upper low swing southward, but remain far enough away to not impact the CWA. Given the proximity of the pressure gradient to the mountains, another chance for some low-end wind gusts across the higher elevations this afternoon and diminish into the overnight hours. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep rain chances nil through the period. By tonight, the upper ridge axis over the central plains moves eastward and gradually contributes to weak height rises over the area. A stout area of high pressure will also remain over the area. Drier air from the NW flow will continue to move in, drying out the region and keeping dewpoints down. Temps approach the mid 80s east of the mountains today with cooler overnight lows around climo.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday: The remainder of the work week continues to look relatively benign across our region as we should remain under a NW to N flow aloft between the upper trof that digs down from the lower Great Lakes to the area offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region and the upper ridge that migrates slowly east from the MS Valley region to the Appalachians. For the most part, this pattern supports high pressure building down from the upper Great Lakes, finally reaching the western Carolinas by Saturday morning. There is one interesting development in the new GFS...and that is the vigorous short wave dropping down to dig the eastern upper trof down across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday evening. The wave brings a good shot of mid-level DPVA which could support some shower development over the NC Piedmont, but for now the moisture looks to be lacking, and the model guidance fails to respond much. A few of the CAMs show isolated showers dropping down in the NW flow late Thursday, so expect a trend toward including some small precip prob over the western Piedmont in future cycles. The pattern supports keeping temps below normal, maybe a category on the highs, and about five degrees on the lows.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday: Looks like we should be able to squeeze one more decent day out of this stretch on Saturday as the deamplifying upper ridge axis moves overhead. Temps should remain on the cool side of normal. Things start returning to early summer from that point onward. The GFS has trended toward a convoluted and baggy upper pattern across the region starting on Sunday, with what looks like remnant MCVs and orphaned short waves roaming around from the Plains to the Carolinas. The other models at least show a more coherent pattern that would be more zonal with embedded upper waves. Either way, expect the diurnal cycle to be the primary organization to scattered showers and storms each day, and that's what we will go with until the signal improves and we get a better sense of what days might have some enhancement from the passage of an upper wave. In this pattern, we should expect a gradual warmup back above normal, along with an increase in humidity, through the middle of next week.