Timberline Mountain

Davis, WV

Currently

Temperature 55.49°F
Feels Like 54.45°F
Humidity 79%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 8.68mph from the W
Broken clouds 55°F Broken clouds
Today Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
High: 62°F Low: 46°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 61°F Low: 38°F
Friday Sunny
High: 64°F Low: 42°F
Saturday Sunny
High: 72°F Low: 50°F
Sunday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 71°F Low: 53°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Crossing disturbances will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. Cooler than average temperatures are expected through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the day today. - High temperature around 5 degrees below the daily average. -------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper low is situated across northern Ohio this morning and vorticity advection associated with an embedded wave has driven an area of showers with some rumbles of thunder. Intrusion of mid-level dry air noted on water vapor satellite will provide a period of dry weather south and west of Pittsburgh through a good portion of the morning hours. As the the upper low pivots and moves further south and east however, the atmosphere will re-moisten and coverage will increase further south, though it may have a more convective look to it south of Pittsburgh resultant of differential heating with thicker cloud cover north and thinner south. The 12z PIT sounding shows PWAT values just under an inch which isn't much out of the ordinary for today climatologically. That said, cloud bearing layer flow of less than 20 knots will support slow moving areas of showers. Colder air under the core of the upper low will allow for destabilization of 500-800 J/kg of mainly skinny CAPE largely confined to the -10C layer and below which could enhance warm rain processes thus heavier rates. While widespread flooding concerns aren't expected, the areas to watch will be typical urban areas but also the Columbiana-Beaver-Lawrence-Mercer region where morning rain has sat the longest and CAMs indicate a probable deformation zone maintaining showers here this afternoon thus confidence is higher for this area to see the most rain. Widespread totals will be a quarter to three quarters of an inch, but amounts locally up to 1.75" under the heavier showers are not off the table. Very weak shear should preclude a severe threat today.

Exiting of the upper level trough axis to the east will see surface high pressure and subsidence build during the evening and overnight hours. The expectation is for decaying convective activity and clearing skies as residual cool advection drops area temperature around 5 degrees below the daily average. Pockets of fog, favoring river vally locations, may be possible as well.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather is expected through Saturday. - Temperature moderates through the period. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Digging of the upper trough along the eastern seaboard will promote dry but cool northerly flow over the Upper Ohio River Valley region through Saturday. Slow height rises as upper ridging edges east from the Central Plains is expected to promote gradual temperature moderation; slightly below average temperature Thursday will become slightly above average by Saturday. Strong influence from surface high pressure centered near to over the area will result in bountiful amounts of sunshine during this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday into early next week. - Weakly forced systems mean chances will be tethered to convective evolution west of the region. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles favor increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough that will shunt narrow ridging to the south. However, variations in shortwave strength alter the timing, convective environment, and overall storm coverage during this period. High pressure to the east will promote warm, moist advection ahead of this system and help to maintain above normal high/low temperatures.

Thereafter, the overall pattern trends toward weak westerlies aloft through early next week. Embedded shortwaves may offer periodic shower/thunderstorm chances but will be much more dependent on convective evolution to the west to determine timing/coverage/probability of occurrence for the forecast area. There is higher confidence that broad height rises should enable further warming areawide, making low to mid 80 values more likely by Tuesday.

Timberline Resort