Timberline Mountain

Davis, WV

Currently

Temperature 31.14°F
Feels Like 26.24°F
Humidity 93%
Pressure 1005mb
Wind 4.81mph from the WNW
Overcast clouds 31°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Cloudy
Low: 32°F
Saturday Snow Showers
High: 32°F Low: 16°F
Sunday Mostly Sunny
High: 41°F Low: 33°F
Monday Partly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers
High: 52°F Low: 40°F
Tuesday Rain Showers Likely
High: 54°F Low: 46°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Outside of light snow across portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia this morning, dry and seasonably cold conditions can be expected today. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Relatively light snow likely this morning along and south of a line running from Zanesville to Morgantown.

- Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, but will begin to trend warmer Sunday. ______________________________________________________________

Snow this morning associated with a sfc low crossing south of the region will be confined to areas south of I-70 as it drops across the Middle Ohio Valley. The best focus for lift and moisture will remain off to the west and south of our forecast area, but accumulations of up to an inch or so will be possible during a brief intersection of upward motion and moisture in the dendritic growth zone.

Cloud coverage will diminish this afternoon under increasing subsidence, leaving a sunny finish to the day. Despite this, cold advection in the wake of yesterday's front will result in minimal temperature increase during the day, with daytime highs in the 30s...between 20F and 25F cooler than observed Friday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures back up to above normal temperatures along with mainly dry conditions. ______________________________________________________________

Dry conditions will continue through Sunday as surface high pressure crosses the region. Temperatures will rebound to several degrees above normal in southwesterly return flow. Cloud coverage will increase Sunday night with a weak shortwave.

Temperatures continue to trend up Monday as the surface high departs, with most locations reaching the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Above normal uncertainty / low confidence forecast with a great deal of model spread.

- Above normal temperatures will continue with widespread rain chances returning midweek ahead of a strong cold front. _______________________________________________________________

The Tuesday/Wednesday forecast depends largely on the evolution of a western CONUS trough, which will be in the vicinity of the northern Rockies at 12Z Tuesday. All models swing this trough relatively rapidly eastward over the next couple of days, but with noticeable strength and timing differences. Cluster analysis seems to currently slightly favor a slower progression eastward, but for now, there is still a large amount of uncertainty in details.

Despite this uncertainty, there remains decent confidence in well- above normal temperatures and good rain chances during the Tuesday- Wednesday period, given the presence of deep and moist southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. A strong frontal passage at some point also appears likely, perhaps on Wednesday. Along with the rain, strong wind gusts appear to be a decent possibility. Some model solutions point to a Great Lakes surface low path and a negatively- tilted 500mb trough, a pattern which is favorable for a widespread strong wind event in our region. Finally, depending on frontal timing, moisture, and the eventual shear/instability pattern, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms cannot be totally ruled out. However, this final threat currently appears more favorable to our west according to SPC and CSU machine-learning guidance. By Thursday, most model solutions have the 500mb trough axis to our east, leading to cooler weather and perhaps some lingering showers.

For the gridded forecast, given the uncertainty, NBM guidance will be followed heavily during the extended period.

Timberline Resort