Wintergreen Resort

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure departs to the east later this morning, then high pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday, potentially bringing multiple weather hazards to the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Outside of the mountains, this low pressure system has been very moisture-starved thus far. Most obs sites are reporting a very light drizzle, if anything at all. Temperatures have also been a bit warmer as well. Have taken any mention of snow out of the forecast this morning for areas east of US-15, and honestly it may really be a stretch outside of the higher elevations.

This all being said, traffic cameras are the one real way to look for snow with radar returns so light, and those cameras atop the mountains in the Blue Ridge are showing some decent snow showers ongoing. Upped the totals a touch, but still well within advisory criteria. Some spots could end with closer to 3 to 4 inches though in the northern Blue Ridge zones.

Upslope snow continues along/west of the Allegheny Front, but does seem to be tapering off in intensity as expected. Thinking the current advisories are looking pretty good as is. Totals as of late last night were anywhere between 2 to 3 inches. Would anticipated to see an additional 1 to 2 on top of that by the end of the event in the hardest hit spots.

As the system moves offshore this afternoon, winds will increase out of the W/NW. A few gusts to 30 mph are possible, primarily in the mountains. Cloudocover will provide poor mixing this afternoon, so don't anticipate those gusts to get to the lower elevations. Could see gusts around 15 to 20 mph though, which will still make it feel quite brisk with highs in the 40s today.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave that is accompanying the aforementioned surface low will slide by to our north on Thursday. While the low levels look a mostly dry, there could be just enough lift for some sprinkles or flurries in northeast MD if there is a little bit of lingering moisture. Otherwise, dry and slightly milder/less breezy conditions are expected through Thursday night.

High pressure moves offshore and turns flow southerly on Friday, which will act to moderate temperatures considerably. Highs will be back into the mid to upper 50s, with some spots in the Shenandoah Valley even breaking into the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Saturday, upper level ridging will be moving off the east coast as a trough digs into the Plains. Surface high pressure to our south continues advancing offshore with southerly flow behind it advecting moisture and above normal temperatures into the region. Dry conditions are expected most of Saturday with rain chances moving into our western periphery Saturday night as surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.

Guidance remains in decent agreement synoptically with the next significant weather maker on Sunday, amplifying the upper trough as it moves into the Midwest with the base of the trough digging down into the Mississippi Valley. There are some notable timing differences, with the GFS jogging slightly ahead of the ECMWF and Canadian. The suite of guidance seems to have trended slightly slower overall though, the jet moving overhead later in the afternoon/early evening. Ensemble members continue to introduce some modest CAPE around this time, though the more favorable shear might be later in the evening/overnight. Probs for 24hr 1" rainfall have continued to increase as well.

This far out, there is significant uncertainty, but we will continue to monitor for the potential severe/heavy rain threat. Strong winds may also accompany this system. Timing will be key in whether these threats materialize. For now, our area can at least anticipate a soaking rain.

After the system exits, high pressure is expected to build in behind it Monday into Tuesday, with some possible upslope precipitation along the Alleghenies.

Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal over the weekend, approaching over 15 degrees above average by Sunday. As the cold front associated with the system moves through, temperatures drop sharply behind it Monday and Tuesday.