Beech Mountain

Beech Mountain, NC

Currently

Temperature 59°F
Feels Like 57.58°F
Humidity 90%
Pressure 1027mb
Wind 7mph from the SE
Clear sky 59°F Clear sky
Tonight Mostly Clear
Low: 74°F
Friday Patchy Fog then Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 74°F Low: 60°F
Saturday Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 74°F Low: 63°F
Sunday Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 74°F Low: 61°F
Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 73°F Low: 58°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Strong high pressure will keep the area dry through Friday and cause a heat wave to build across the region through early next week. More typical summertime shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually return to the area Saturday through Monday as a weak cold front approaches from the north.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1000 PM: No major changes needed for the evening update. Some lingering cu across the mountains, mainly near the TN border, with moisture trapped under a strong inversion around 800 mb on the 00z soundings. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with some patchy mountain valley fog possible. Min temps tonight are again expected to be close to normal.

Otherwise...The center of an upper anticyclone is forecast to retrograde from the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic this afternoon to the lower MS Valley by the end of the period, with an overall weakening/breakdown of the ridge expected in response to a series of short wave trough lift west-through-north around its periphery. Despite this, heights aloft will remain anomalously high and upper flow anticyclonic across our region, while a persistent, albeit weakening easterly low level flow will support a relatively dry/low theta-E air mass over our area through the period. Diurnal destabilization will therefore remain meager, although a slight uptick in instability is expected Fri afternoon...primarily near the TN/NC border. This may be good enough to allow for a few afternoon showers to initiate across the ridgetops of the Smokies and vicinity, warranting spotty 20% chances across the NC mtns. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry and increasingly hot. Partial thickness progs support a warmup of a couple of degrees above today's readings on Friday afternoon...with max temps of 90-92 expected to be widespread across the foothills and Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 134 PM EDT Thursday: The weekend looks like it will be a slow transition into something more active and more typical of summer, as an upper anticyclone migrates/retrogrades from the TN Valley region on Friday night to the srn Plains Sunday afternoon. As this happens, our flow aloft will switch from anticyclonic at the start of the weekend to broadly cyclonic on Sunday as a nrn stream system moving from the Great Lakes to ern Canada exploits a weakness between the aforementioned anticyclone and the Atlantic Subtropical Ridge. The wildcard in all this will be how much a weak easterly wave/sfc low can hold together after it moves onshore across north FL/south GA Friday night. Of note is the compact swirl maintained in the 12Z NAM Nest over southeast GA through Saturday afternoon, but still too far away to directly affect our area. Instead, the model trend continues with bringing in more low level moisture faster, which stands to reason given the westward-moving wave bringing the moisture from the Atlantic coast. The typically wetter NAM raises dewpoints high enough that we would end up with a breakable cap Saturday afternoon. That seems reasonable at least over the higher terrain, so elevation-based precip probs ramp up there midday. Outside the mtns, confidence is lower, but the guidance seems to be on the right track with at least some small chance on the south/southeast fringe. Temps will climb a few deg above average. By Sunday, the old capping inversion breaks down and gets mixed out, which should allow for at least a climatological precip prob distribution in the afternoon, with what looks for now like just garden-variety thunderstorms. Temps may creep upward another deg or two, but the dewpoint will be rising further, altho not to the point where the heat index would get close to Advisory criteria. Now that it is summer, we can say it just looks like typical summer.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 243 PM EDT Thursday: Once we get out into next week, the situation looks more active and summerlike, thus at the same time a bit more uncertain, particularly with what days might have the better chances of diurnally-enhanced thunderstorms. The expectation is for above normal precip chances and above normal temps, provided by a weak WNW flow aloft that brings some remnant short wave activity and weak downslope flow. Confidence is probably best in the temperatures being on the order of five degrees above normal Monday through Wednesday, which means highs mostly around 90 in the mtn valleys and in the middle 90s east of the mtns, with some upper 90s sprinkled in. Humidity will be high enough to bring the heat index into the low triple digits in some places, but not yet to Heat Advisory levels. We shall continue to mention the heat in the HWO for the time being. There is some indication that a weak boundary may cross the region Monday night, which could render Tuesday as the quietest day of the stretch, but any significant reduction in the precip chance is smeared out in the model guidance blends that we typically use. Wednesday/Wednesday night might be the busiest time of the stretch, as some of the guidance shows a more coherent wave/vort lobe coming down from the NW and crossing the region, which should be sufficient to trigger/organize thunderstorms. It stands to reason that we should have a good shot at a few pulse-severe storms with some locally heavy rain. The boundary may cross the region and bring the precip chances and RH back down on Thursday, but that is uncertain.

Beech Parkway
Beech Mtn Resort Summit
Pinnacle Inn