Sapphire Valley

Sapphire, NC


Temperature 57.87°F
Feels Like 57.43°F
Humidity 87%
Pressure 1014mb
Wind 2.08mph from the ENE
Overcast clouds 58°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Scattered Rain Showers
Low: 70°F
Sunday Scattered Rain Showers
High: 70°F Low: 54°F
Monday Patchy Fog then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 74°F Low: 54°F
Tuesday Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 75°F Low: 56°F
Wednesday Mostly Sunny
High: 78°F Low: 58°F


... A low pressure system will exit off the Carolina Coast today, with high pressure building in from the north. Relatively dry conditions return for the first half of the week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms in the mountains. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM: Gradual height rises over the Northeast CONUS will continue this morning, and a weak sfc high will build down the East Coast via that mechanism and as a shortwave continues to drift east across GA and the Carolinas. A backdoor front has moved through most of our CWA as a result. A few hundred joules of MUCAPE remain invof the front and slow-moving showers and storms have lined up ahead of it. The main impacts from these storms will be heavy rainfall, via PWATs around 1.5" producing efficient rainfall rates, and in some areas training with the boundary being parallel to the mean flow. Recent activity has started moving a little faster as outflows or the boundary orient more perpendicular. Regardless, the area of concern for locally heavy rain is now the Lakelands. Lighter stratiform precip will occur north of the front across the Upstate urban corridor, seemingly via deformation on the north side of the shortwave, but these rates are much less concerning. Updated PoPs again thru the morning, mostly lower than what was sent with the last update, and focusing further south now that convection has fizzled well behind the front.

The main area of DPVA with the shortwave most likely will be southeast of the CWA by daybreak, with the deformation zone starting to shift south. Beneath the trough, we retain pretty good lapse rates through most of the daytime hours. The northeasterly flow associated with the sfc high is deep and forcing really comes from the CAA, with no appreciable warm upglide. So as the front sags farther south precip chances generally should continue to diminish despite some lingering MUCAPE in the early part of the day in the far south warranting the best chances there initially. A subsidence inversion will persist over most of the Piedmont and should preclude new convection there this afternoon. However, over the mountains, the inversion will be weaker but also some degree of low-level convergence will be present owing to slightly more backed flow behind the shortwave meeting the easterly flow from the high. This should provide slight forcing. Deep dry air in the mid to upper levels would appear difficult for the relatively mild instability to overcome, so PoPs have been limited to chance range in the mountains. Storms likely will be slow moving but PWATs will be considerably lower than what we saw overnight, somewhat mitigating heavy rain threat. With the NE winds continuing, max temps will be several degrees below normal despite partial sunshine. Remaining PoPs will diminish nocturnally; some low stratus could develop near the Blue Ridge Escarpment overnight in the wedgelike easterly flow. Mins will be around normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday: Subsidence from mid-level ridging should keep most of the region capped Monday and Tuesday. The exception will be the usual highest elevations of the NC mountains, which may overcome the CIN and result in a few showers and possibly an isolated garden-variety tstm during peak aftn heating. An axis of dry sfc high pressure will set up along the East coast, supporting mostly sunny skies both days. Highs will be near normal on Monday (in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountain valleys and the Piedmont), and slightly above normal Tuesday (mostly mid 80s). Patchy fog will be possible, especially in the mountain valleys both Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday: Upper ridging across the Southeast and along the East Coast will begin to gradually break down, as a series of shortwaves eject out of the Rockies. Wednesday looks like the last dry day, with stronger capping resulting in no mentionable PoPs and temps a few degrees above normal. From there, a cold front is fcst to sag southeastward across the Ohio Valley and bring a return of mainly diurnal convection to the area. Most activity will be in the northern part of the forecast area Thursday as the front approaches, but then expands south for Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough crosses the area Friday, which may enhance convective coverage and contribute to bulk shear. But the 00z deterministic guidance is still not in great agreement on placement of the front and resulting QPF response. The ECMWF still is a little north of the area Friday compared to the GFS and Canadian. Overall, a more active convective pattern is expected to continue from Friday thru the weekend. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal thru the end of the medium range.