Appalachian Ski Mountain

Blowing Rock, NC

Currently

Temperature 57°F
Feels Like 56.8°F
Humidity 93%
Pressure 1012mb
Wind 4mph from the SE
Overcast clouds 57°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Patchy Fog
Low: 66°F
Sunday Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 66°F Low: 53°F
Monday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 71°F Low: 53°F
Tuesday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 73°F Low: 55°F
Wednesday Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers
High: 76°F Low: 58°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A stationary front has been the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This front will begin to move south overnight...shower coverage decreasing. High pressure will bring dry weather from Monday into most of Wednesday, before an approaching cold front Thursday brings the next chance of showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Showers/storms diminish this evening.

2) Drier tomorrow with only a slight chance of rain for the mountains.

Shower/storms continue across the mountains...but weakening with time as stable air arrives from the northeast. Stationary boundary assisted by outflow from thunderstorms is getting a nudge to the south, this front easily defined by e-w line of storms bisecting the state of NC...south of I40. Trend is for this activity to continue to move south and away from our CWA. Showers/storms along the Appalachian divide are the result of convergent northeast flow and daytime heating. This activity should weaken with time but may not entirely go away per lingering convergence. For now will maintain high chance pops across the mountains until midnight...then cut numbers for the late night. Still can't rule out some poor drainage flooding...so be on the lookout for ponding of water on roads.

Cool air wedge strengthens overnight and cooler air and low clouds will cover a large portion of the area by tomorrow morning. Expecting some fog development as well. May see some erosion of the wedge throughout the day tomorrow. A chance of some differential heating/orographic lift downpours or isolated thunderstorms across the western mountains in the afternoon, but otherwise most of the area should remain dry with the northeast flow in place.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1). Mainly Dry through the period for a change.

2). Temperatures near seasonal normal.

The weak and broad upper trough across the eastern U.S. will lift out of the region Sunday allowing an upper ridge to build eastward and northeastward into the region from the south central U.S. Dynamics/forcing will be limited under the upper ridge with warming temperatures aloft. At the surface, a lingering wedge will remain across the area into Monday, but gradually dissipate through the period. Increased sunshine, less precipitation, and the dissipating wedge will allow temperatures to warm back to seasonal levels compared to the last few rather cool days. Other than a scattering of diurnally driven showers across the western mountains, and principally the southwest VA/northwest NC mountains, little if any precipitation is expected through this time frame.

Temperatures will range mostly from the 50s at night to the 70s mountains into the lower 80s elsewhere through the period.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1). Increasingly unsettled weather pattern evolves during the later half of the week.

2). Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.

Upper ridging across the eastern U.S. will gradually break down through the later half of the week as a strong short wave tracks from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes. An associated cold front will move slowly into the region Thu-Fri. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the front approaches from the west, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Timing is a bit uncertain as the ECMWF is quite a bit slower than the GFS. The ECMWF would delay the bulk of the precipitation until Friday going into the weekend. Activity looks to be somewhat scattered and mostly diurnal at this point with a low severe threat. Heavy rain may eventually be a greater concern, but too far out to hone in on any specific threats.

Temperatures are expected to remain relatively near seasonal normals with a slight cooling trend from midweek to the weekend as clouds and precipitation coverage increase. Look for lows mostly in the 50s to lower 60s urban areas with high temperatures primarily in the 70s mountains with lower 80s Piedmont.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

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