Cataloochee Ski Area

Maggie Valley, NC

Currently

Temperature 66.18°F
Feels Like 66.36°F
Humidity 82%
Pressure 1022mb
Wind 2.19mph from the SW
Few clouds 66°F Few clouds
Today Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 78°F Low: 62°F
Monday Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 79°F Low: 63°F
Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
High: 78°F Low: 63°F
Wednesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 77°F Low: 61°F
Thursday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 73°F Low: 59°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Hot high pressure persists into early next week, with isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. The pattern changes mid- week as a cold front stalls across the area and brings above normal rain chances and cooler weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 620 am EDT Sunday: Little change in the upper air pattern is expected through the near term, with a broad/low-amplitude trough expected to remain centered across the northeast quadrant of the country, and a thermal/lee surface trough expected to persist east of the Appalachians. Forecast soundings look relatively similar to yesterday, with plenty of dry mid-level air...precipitable water values near-to-a-little below climo...and moderately unstable but also weakly capped air parcels. However, spot checks of various point soundings do suggest that there could be a couple of hours this afternoon in which the atmosphere becomes uncapped here and there. All this spells a slight uptick in diurnal convective coverage this afternoon, and 20-30 PoPs are forecast for much of the area. A lack of robust instability will continue to yield a non-existent severe storm threat, although we should see a bit more lightning than was seen on Saturday. Max temps will receive another boost of a couple of degrees over yesterday...but deep mixing... with some of the dry air aloft finding its way to the surface... should again preclude reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105)...except perhaps on a very localized basis. However, plenty of 100-103 is expected over the Piedmont. Convective coverage will diminish quickly this evening, giving way to another warm and muggy night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 AM Sunday: Starting off the week in a similar fashion to the weekend, but hotter. The overall picture continues with most of the the CONUS remaining under high pressure, including the southeast. Flow aloft is weak, persisting stagnant conditions across the area. Monday looks to have an uptick in moisture as guidance suggests PWATS approaching the 2 inch mark, signaling a typical muggy, summer day. Modeled soundings have another day of a stout inverted-V and this time less drier air aloft. There could be some instability, providing some fuel for showers and thunderstorms. These would, however, be isolated and nothing outside of what is expected during this time of year. Essentially, rinse and repeat for Tuesday, with highest PoPs over the mountains. The so called bigger story will be the heat, which exceeds summertime climo both days. Heat index concerns for both days, with Tuesday being the most likely for any Heat Advisory concerns. Monday could have a few areas in the eastern NC Piedmont approach 105 degree heat index values. Tuesday, there is higher confidence in widespread heat index values approaching and exceeding 105 east of the mountains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday: By Wednesday, a pattern shift emerges and heat relief comes barreling down from the north. Long range guidance from the GFS/EURO signal a developing upper low and trough across Canada, north of the Great Lakes. This amplification leads to height falls across the eastern portion of the CONUS, and drifting across the CWA on Wednesday into Thursday. Flow aloft shifts more SW as a cold front makes its way toward the area. Guidance does have the front stalling and eventually running out of steam west of the mountains, but this sets up the area for much needed precip chances through the end of the forecast period. At the surface, amplifying high pressure off the east coast should setup a persistent SW flow and moisture advection into the area. QPF response this far out at least shows rainfall, but how much is still TBD as the forecast will change. As for temperatures, Wednesday could see another day of hot temps and similar heat index values of the day prior. Temps should start to decline Thursday through the end of the weekend. Though temps will be lower, humidity is not expected to decline as the front holds the dry air west of the CWA. Persistent moisture advection through the end of the period.

Base Cam
Summit Cam
Hemphill Cam