Wisp Resort / McHenry

Summary

SYNOPSIS

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Low pressure will move overhead today with its associated cold front moving through the area this afternoon. A stronger cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday night. High pressure builds for the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Rain will exit the area to the northeast by 15Z today, with rain turning into drizzle as mid-level dry slot works in, low-levels remain saturated, and low-level convergence increases with low pressure center overhead. It will likely take all day for cigs to improve and it's possible vsbys may drop again to one mile or less at times. It does not appear that there will be a need for more Dense Fog Advisories later today, except in the higher terrain where there is one now. Low pressure shifts offshore later tonight with westerly winds developing resulting in partial clearing east of the mountains. Rain showers over the mountains will turn into snow showers by daybreak Monday, but not accumulation is expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Weak pressure gradient and sfc ridging will inhibit much in the way of upslope precipitation across the mountains Monday, but expect lots of mid and high level clouds everywhere. Much cooler with highs in the low 50s. Additional shortwave energy will move across the area Tuesday afternoon through Tue night with renewd chances for snow showers across the mountains. A couple to a few inches of snow are possible through 12Z Wednesday, but this would be over period longer than 12 hours which wouldn't meet winter wx advisory criteria. Greater chances of accumulation look more likely after 12Z Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The aforementioned clipper low will slide offshore Wednesday, but a few showers linger during the first half the day. Some snow will likely mix in at higher elevations as much cooler air pours into the region. After the low departs to the east, still expect upslope snow showers to continue into Wednesday night. For now, accumulations look light, perhaps up to an inch or two, but will continue to watch latest trends in guidance, especially as we get into the range of the hi-res guidance. Aside from precipitation, a much more wintry air mass will come into place Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s. Gusty winds are expected during the afternoon as well, which will make it feel significantly colder.

Another chilly day expected on Thursday, with highs only reaching the low to mid 40s. Any lingering upslope snow should be over by Thursday morning in the mountains.

High pressure will shift offshore on Friday into Saturday, meaning that we will see temperatures moderate a good bit. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are expected, with lows in the 30s.