Banner Elk

Banner Elk, NC

Currently

Temperature 65.7°F
Feels Like 66.15°F
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1022mb
Wind 5.99mph from the
Broken clouds 66°F Broken clouds
Tonight Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Low: 72°F
Monday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
High: 72°F Low: 60°F
Tuesday Partly Sunny
High: 73°F Low: 57°F
Juneteenth Mostly Sunny
High: 73°F Low: 56°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 74°F Low: 57°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through much of the week keeping temperatures above normal. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon, but drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Evening Update...The fcst remains in pretty good shape this evening. Extended PoPS across the ern zones with sea breeze front looking to remain active over the next few hrs. Decent cloud cover overnight will limit a fog threat in the morning and keep min temps a couple cats abv normal. However, some spotty dense fog is possible, mainly across the mtn valleys, where the higher rainfall occurred and where the best chance of seeing breaks in the clouds exists.

As of 200 pm Sunday: Per the latest SPC Mesoanalysis, the atmosphere has destabilized to the tune of 2000-3000 J/kg of sbCAPE across the western ~third of the forecast area this afternoon. Scattered deep convection has fired across the ridge tops of the Smokies, Balsams, and adjacent mountain ranges this afternoon, with a few strong cells noted...primarily just west of the CWA. With an anticyclone centered virtually overhead, steering current are very weak at < 10 kts, so any cell that develops will have the potential for dropping a quick 1-2" before raining itself out...and can't rule out an isolated excessive rainfall threat with storms that become anchored on terrain features and exhibit a little more longevity. With instability being quite robust, occasional strong storms will continue, while one or two pulse severe storms are probably a good bet...with favorable downdraft CAPE supporting a microburst threat. (Very high freezing levels of around 15kft should preclude even a marginal large hail threat.) The potential for at least isolated convection should eventually spread east of the mtns, particularly the foothills where a weak SE upslope flow, a weak surface boundary (reflected by wind shift zone near the NC/SC border), and perhaps an outflow boundary or two emanating from mountain convection will provide the main sources for parcel lift. Having said that, instability decreases across the eastern third of the area, esp across the NC northern foothills and northwest Piedmont, where low clouds have stubbornly held through the day. PoPs will therefore feature a decreasing trend from west-to-east. Convective chances will linger into the evening hours across much of the area, steadily tapering down from late evening through the overnight. Min temps will be several degrees above climo. Upper anticyclone will begin wobbling northeast away from the area on Monday, but will nevertheless remain the dominant synoptic scale feature impacting the sensible weather across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, surface ridge extending from strong high over the northwest Atlantic will build more strongly into our CWA, which will act to begin advecting lower theta-E air into the eastern zones throughout the day. Deep layer/mean cloud bearing flow is also forecast to become increasingly weak...less than 5 kts by Mon afternoon. The lower instability and weak steering flow suggests mountain diurnal convection is more likely to stay confined there on Monday, and PoPs range from 50/60% across the mountains...to barely slight chance across the Piedmont. Instability will again be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm or two, but locally heavy/perhaps excessive rainfall may become more of a threat owing to the expectation of even slow cell motion. Max temps are forecast to be 0-2 degrees above climo. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: A large upper ridge will be centered over the Carolinas and VA as we move into the short term, and will slowly elongate as it drifts north, expanding across New England and down the Eastern Seaboard through the period. Strong surface high pressure centered over the northern Atlantic will be ridging toward the Carolinas bringing east to southeasterly upslope flow off the Atlantic. The placement of this surface high so far to the north will somewhat balance out the subsidence and increasing thicknesses from the upper ridge (not for long), keeping temperatures through the near term pretty close to seasonal normals. No convection expected under the expanding ridge but typical scattered afternoon Cu, especially Tuesday afternoon in the mountains closer to the moisture fetch off the Gulf along the western periphery of the high. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: The strong upper ridge will remain firmly in place over the Mid-Atlantic as we move into the extended, while the Atlantic surface high begins to slowly shift southward, bringing the surface flow a little more southeasterly. The dry forecast will continue on Thursday as temperatures begin a slow climb. Meanwhile, and this is already noted on the latest NHC outlook, guidance is wanting to develop some sort of tropical wave near the Bahamas at this point in the easterly flow around the southern edge of the surface high (the wave may develop before that of course, this is where the outlook has highlighted). So as we move toward the end of the work week, while temperatures continue to climb with the oppressive ridge overhead, we will have to be monitoring the progression of this system. 00z guidance was bringing it farther north than 12z guidance has it (new GFS keeps it well to our south) but imagine it will continue to waffle some over the next couple of days. We could use the rain, and considering the heat associated with the upper ridge as it drifts back south toward the weekend, with highs Saturday approaching the mid 90s in some areas, relief from the moisture/clouds/rain would be welcome. Even without the tropical influence, likely to see a return to more of a diurnal convective pattern with slightly cooler temperatures at 500mb, but suffice it to say that confidence in sensible weather impacts for the weekend are particularly low.

Highway 184
Lees McRae College