Banner Elk

Banner Elk, NC

Currently

Temperature 56.28°F
Feels Like 55.8°F
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1014mb
Wind 5.99mph from the ESE
Light rain 56°F Light rain
Overnight Patchy Fog
Low: 64°F
Sunday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 64°F Low: 51°F
Monday Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 69°F Low: 52°F
Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 71°F Low: 54°F
Wednesday Isolated Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 73°F Low: 57°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A low pressure system will exit off the Carolina Coast today, with high pressure building in from the north. Relatively dry conditions return for the first half of the week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms in the mountains. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM: Gradual height rises over the Northeast CONUS will continue this morning, and a weak sfc high will build down the East Coast via that mechanism and as a shortwave continues to drift east across GA and the Carolinas. A backdoor front has moved through most of our CWA as a result. A few hundred joules of MUCAPE remain invof the front and slow-moving showers and storms have lined up along it, with new development now occurring from Anderson to near Whitmire. The main impacts from these storms will be heavy rainfall, with weak unidirectional flow parallel to the front allowing training, and PWATs around 1.5" producing efficient rainfall rates. Lighter stratiform precip will occur north of the front across the Upstate urban corridor but these rates are much less concerning. Short term progs depict the MUCAPE diminishing only very slowly, and the front will sag south at a slow rate as well, so some area of heavy rainfall looks likely to develop across the Lakelands before dawn. As such fairly high PoPs are forecast for most of our GA/SC zones thru then as well. Low level CAA will however lead to a strengthening

The main area of DPVA most likely will be southeast of the CWA by daybreak, but with it being overhead we retain pretty good lapse rates through most of the daytime hours. The northeasterly flow associated with the sfc high is deep and forcing really comes from the CAA, with no appreciable warm upglide. So as the front sags farther south precip chances generally will diminish north of it, despite some lingering MUCAPE in the early part of the day. A subsidence inversion will persist over most of the Piedmont and should preclude new convection there this afternoon. However, over the mountains, the inversion will be weaker but also some degree of low-level convergence will be present owing to slightly more backed flow behind the shortwave meeting the easterly flow from the high. This should provide slight forcing. Deep dry air in the mid to upper levels would appear difficult for the relatively mild instability to overcome, so PoPs have been limited to chance range in the mountains. Max temps will be several degrees below normal despite partial sunshine.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday: Subsidence from mid-level ridging should keep most of the region capped Monday and Tuesday. The exception will be the usual highest elevations of the NC mountains, which may overcome the CIN and result in a few showers and possibly an isolated garden-variety tstm during peak aftn heating. An axis of dry sfc high pressure will set up along the East coast, supporting mostly sunny skies both days. Highs will be near normal on Monday (in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountain valleys and the Piedmont), and slightly above normal Tuesday (mostly mid 80s). Patchy fog will be possible, especially in the mountain valleys both Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday: Upper ridging across the Southeast and along the East Coast will begin to gradually break down, as a series of shortwaves eject out of the Rockies. Wednesday looks like the last dry day, with stronger capping resulting in no mentionable PoPs and temps a few degrees above normal. From there, a cold front is fcst to sag southeastward across the Ohio Valley and bring a return of mainly diurnal convection to the area. Most activity will be in the northern part of the forecast area Thursday as the front approaches, but then expands south for Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough crosses the area Friday, which may enhance convective coverage and contribute to bulk shear. But the 00z deterministic guidance is still not in great agreement on placement of the front and resulting QPF response. The ECMWF still is a little north of the area Friday compared to the GFS and Canadian. Overall, a more active convective pattern is expected to continue from Friday thru the weekend. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal thru the end of the medium range.

Highway 184
Lees McRae College