|Dew Point:||42.0°F (5.6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.34" (891.9 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 54 Low: 36
Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 40 Low: 28
SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 26
Mostly Sunny then Chance Light RainHigh: 39 Low: 34
Sunny, with a high near 54. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
A chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 7am and 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 44. Northwest wind around 9 mph.
Clear, with a low around 30.
Sunny, with a high near 46.
Mostly clear, with a low around 26.
A chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
... A frontal system will push through the forecast area late tonight into Tuesday. Cold high pressure will gradually build in behind this system with a return of below normal temperatures through the week. Widespread rain is likely late Friday through Saturday as a low pressure system tracks northeast from the Gulf of Mexico.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Monday: A deep upper trough is digging across the Great Lakes and down to the Southeast at AFD, pushing a cold front toward the Appalachians. The front is fairly dry, with moisture not extending above 500mb, with even the 700mb moisture outrunning the lower moisture before sunrise. All the best dynamics are to the north, through some channeled vorticity will be approaching the mountains tonight with a bit of jet-level dynamics. With the lack of deep moisture, the mountains will sort of tear the front apart, but it will have enough of the low-level moisture to bring some light showers to the mountains (high pop-low QPF). Since frontal passage itself won't be till Tuesday morning, even in the mountains the deep- layer CAA won't really take hold in time for much changeover to frozen precip, but could see a half inch to possibly an inch dusting at the highest elevations overnight. Moisture is certainly not deep enough for much if any of the precip make it into the foothills and western Piedmont, but as is typical of these fronts, it will likely re-form farther east. Cannot rule out some very brief showery activity in eastern zones late Tuesday morning but for now have kept the forecast dry.
The front will be felt more by knocking temperatures back down again Tuesday afternoon - hope you're all enjoying the beautifully normal (to slightly ABOVE) temps today, because we'll be back 3-5 degrees below for the Piedmont and more like 10 degrees below for the mountains. Piedmont temperatures could bust by a few degrees depending on how quickly the front moves through.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Monday: While under the influence of sfc high pressure throughout the short term forecast period, expect conditions to remain dry and quiet. Guidance continues to prog upper troughing across the eastern US and ridging over the western US on Tuesday night, with WNW flow well in place across the western Carolinas and northeast GA through into Thursday. As upper ridging propagates eastward on Thursday and sfc high pressure expands across the NE, latest guidance continues to suggest the development of a southern stream wave over TX within split flow. Model placement of this system does vary slightly as it moves into the GOM, but overall consensus keeps this system well to south. With this feature over the FL peninsula, and sfc high pressure wedging back into the area on Thursday, have kept PoPs near zero through the end of the fcst period. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will remain below normal.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Friday with upper ridging moving across the Central CONUS as an upper trof moves off the New England Coast. At the same time, an embedded southern stream upper shortwave will pass to our south as the upper ridge axis passes to our north. The large scale pattern will remain very dynamic thru the rest of the period. On Sat, another upper trof will lift over the Southeast as the ridge gets pushed offshore. By the end of the period another, more substantial upper trof will approach the region from the west. At the sfc, strong high pressure will be centered to our north with ELY to NELY low-lvl flow in place. By early Sat, the high will be drifting offshore as a low develops to our SW and quickly lifts NE over the region. At present, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty wrt the track of this low. All of the model guidance does agree that the low will be lifting NE of the fcst area by early Sunday with drier air temporarily spreading back over the area. By the end of the period early Monday, another low is expected to spin up to our west and bring another cold front to our doorstep. As for the sensible wx, no major changes were made save for increasing PoPs on Sat and decreasing them a bit on Fri. Still expecting only liquid precip at this point, as low-lvl temps look too warm to support anything frz by midday Fri.