Blowing Rock Weather

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Expect a few lingering showers and thunderstorms today for the mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will build in from the east. High pressure will keep our area mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. A frontal system approaches late in the week to bring the next chance for rain. After cooler weather today, temperatures will be warm for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Cool and drier today, with a low chance for showers/storms in the mountains this afternoon.

2) Sun may make an appearance, but expect more clouds and fog tonight into Monday morning.

A wedge of high pressure with NE/E winds was forming already this morning as a frontal boundary and associated showers continue to drift south. This set up was resulting in low stratus and fog this morning and will keep us cloudy and cooler for the most part, with a few breaks of sunshine possible. CAMs are still indicating a few showers/storms developing late this afternoon and into the evening on the northern periphery of the high...closer to higher theta-e values and residual short wave energy. Convection looks possible across SE WV with perhaps a few sprinkles/light showers blooming along the ridges of VA and NC as well before dying after dark. Again rain may be brief but moderate to heavy, and may lead to urban and small stream flooding.

NE-to-SW oriented ridging in the mid and upper levels will build in tonight into Monday, and should help to break down the wedge of high pressure. Early in the morning however, still expecting the wedge to be strong with more stratus/fog and warm lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Confidence in the near term is high but lower for chances for rain this afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Mainly dry through the period.

2) Warmer than normal temperatures.

Surface high pressure with ridging aloft will bring drier weather to the region Monday and Tuesday. Low level flow will remain out of the southeast Monday, which will keep low clouds in the area for much of the day. Uniform temperatures expected, ranging in the 70s. Flow becomes southerly on Tuesday and with less cloud cover, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the mountains and low to mid 80s in the foothill and piedmont. A cold front will approach the region Wednesday. With increasing southerly flow and abundant sunshine, temperatures will warm into the 80s

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Unsettled weather pattern evolves during the later half of the week.

A cold front is expected to track over the region Thursday and stall across the area Thursday night into Friday. This stalled boundary will increase the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. A wave of low pressure will then move along this boundary, bringing more storms Friday. Showers are expected to move out of the area Friday night with high pressure building in over the region next weekend.

Warmer than normal temperatures expected Thursday, then near normal going into next weekend.