|Dew Point:||52.0°F (11.1°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Areas Of DrizzleLow: 52
Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 66 Low: 56
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 67 Low: 58
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 68 Low: 56
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 65 Low: 54
Patchy fog before 3am, then areas of drizzle and patchy fog. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South southwest wind around 9 mph.
Areas of drizzle and patchy fog before 9am, then a slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and patchy fog between midnight and 1am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before noon, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... High pressure off the East Coast will provide a warm, moist southerly flow through the middle of the week. Another cold front will descend from Tennessee by Thursday. This front will stall out and linger just north of our area next weekend. Chances for rain and well above average temperatures will remain through the next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1045 PM Update...An update to issue a dense fog advisory. Area obs across the non/mtns are showing 1/2 mile to 1/4 mile visibility. Dense fog will become more widespread thru the overnight. For now...the mtn valleys area not having fog issues but they could around daybreak.
930 PM Update...Made some downward adjs to the PoP grids as no precip has generated yet in weak isent lift. Starting to see some dense fg arnd the CLT area and an SPS may be warranted within the next couple hrs. The atmos remains rather steady-state in the llvls...but with modest drying deepening aloft...dense fg is still likely overnight thru daybreak across many locales.
630 PM Update...No sigfnt changes made to the fcst as the atmos is remaining fairly steady-state within a moist sfc wedge. Expect low overcast clouds to persist and visibilities to begin to lower thru the next update. The overnight period still looks pretty good for dense fg development across the FA as soundings show a saturated and weakly turbulent BL while dry air deepens aloft.
500 PM Update...Dry air continues to break up cloud cover along the srn wedge bndry. However...the rate has slowed and llvl moisture builds back in some areas. Thus...will make minor adjs to the sky and T/Td grids.
As of 250 PM EST Monday: Wedge in place across the Carolinas has allowed for mostly cloudy skies to prevail across the area today with light winds and areas of light rain/drizzle with the aid of upglide. Per latest radar imagery, most of the rainfall activity has since tapered off from earlier today, but wouldn't entirely rule out areas of drizzle to continue into tonight, especially along the escarpment. In most areas, temperatures have been slow to climb to around normal (low to mid 50s), though some locations around the outer fringes of the FA have climbed into the upper 50s/around 60 degrees this afternoon where it seems the wedge is slowly eroding.
Southwest flow will continue to infiltrate in across the region tonight through into Tuesday as a deep upper trough remains situated across the western US with strong sfc high pressure just off the Southeast coast. Latest guidance continues to suggest the wedge in place will erode this evening with a warm front quickly moving northward. With drier air infiltrating in at the mid levels, expect low level moisture to increase overnight into Tuesday. This along with light winds, am expecting fog development overnight to become widespread, with areas of dense fog (potentially warranting a Dense Fog Advisory). Temperatures will reach near record max low temperatures overnight, as will be the case over the next several days (see the Climate section below for more information).
As low clouds persist into Tuesday morning, expect fog to be slow to lift, possibly lingering into late morning, as WAA will aid in dispersing both fog and low clouds into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be slow to warm, but they will warm nonetheless, with afternoon temperatures climbing above normal, into the lower 70s along and south of I-85, into the low to mid 60s elsewhere (cooler across the mountains).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 PM EST Monday: A deep-layer southwesterly fetch will persist Wednesday through Friday between high pressure anchored off the southeast coast and persistent height falls across the desert southwest. At lower levels, upslope flow and continued moisture in profiles below 800 mb will keep precipitation chances up in and near the mountains throughout the period, with the highest QPF, though not substantial amounts, in the southerly upslope flow areas. The zone of deepest moisture will likely lay over from the northwest into or near the NC mountains on Thursday before drying up at mid and upper levels. Diurnal instability will briefly bubble up each afternoon to permit isolated to scattered thunderstorms in southwest sections on Wednesday and across the foothills on Thursday.
Low-level moisture, and associated clouds, should remain fairly persistent through the period. Profiles also look favorable for fog formation Wednesday and Thursday mornings. There is also some potential for the front to the north late Thursday to backdoor into the region Thursday night into Friday, so Friday temperatures will have quite a bit more uncertainty, especially along the I-40 corridor. Otherwise, expect near-record warm minimum temperatures some 20 to 25 degrees above climo each morning. Maxes should run 15 to 20 degrees above climo at least Wednesday and Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM EST Monday: The southwest U.S. low pressure system/trough will begin to open up over the plains over the weekend, with the various model solutions maintaining different strengths of a 500 mb wave propagating east. However, all solutions have the dampening feature passing mainly north of our forecast area. Meanwhile, deeper moisture will gradually build over the weekend in the continued southwesterly flow, with the best moisture near the cold frontal zone arriving on Sunday. 850 mb flow should ramp up to 40 to 50 kt by Sunday afternoon, with thunderstorms possible in the warm sector airmass. Instability currently appears a bit limited for much severe potential that day, but trends will need to be monitored.
The main sensible weather differences among the models occur on Monday. The GFS is faster and drier due to exhibiting more of a clean fropa south of a more vigorous wave. The ECM stalls the boundary and brings moisture back fairly quickly over it early next week. The CMC is slower with the front to start with and would have PoPs linger into Monday. Will follow a blended approach and keep isolated to scattered shower PoPs going into Monday. Well above climo temperatures will continue through the period.