|Dew Point:||54.6°F (12.6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.90" (877.0 mb)|
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 60 Low: 34
SunnyHigh: 55 Low: 35
Areas Of Frost then SunnyHigh: 61 Low: 40
SunnyHigh: 65 Low: 51
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 66 Low: 55
Rain showers likely and areas of fog before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. West northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Mostly clear, with a low around 34. North northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 55. North northwest wind around 9 mph.
Areas of frost after 11pm. Clear, with a low around 35. North northwest wind around 7 mph.
Areas of frost before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 40.
Sunny, with a high near 65.
A chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... A cold front will cross the area today with rain ahead of the front and cooler and drier air behind it. A cool, autumn air mass will settle over the region Thursday through Saturday, before moisture and rain chances return from Sunday into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM: The latest radar showed shower activity expanding across the region in response to better forcing arriving ahead of the cold front from the west. This uptick in activity better matches the ongoing forecast. However, activity associated with the front itself may be falling apart a bit quicker than anticipated. Will maintain the current forecast as daytime heating may give a secondary boost to this activity as it enters the mountains.
Otherwise, the aforementioned cold front is expected to push through the region from west to east from later this morning through mid afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show sufficient upper level support to maintain shower activity and possibly a few rumbles of thunder with the front as it pushes into the mountains. The latest guidance continued to show best diffluence and associated synoptic lift aloft swinging northeast ahead of the longwave trough into to Virginia's. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the front over the Ohio River Valley will gradually wane, but likely still hold together moving into the mountains later this morning(especially northern mtns). There may be just enough forcing for a few rumbles of thunder. Downsloping flow and continuing loss of synoptic support will likely lead to isolated showers at best east of the mountains through early this afternoon, mostly confined to the I-40 corridor.
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the front, gradually ushering in much colder into the region this evening into tonight. A tightening pressure gradient, cold air advection, coupled with upper level support (40 kt winds at 850 mb), is just enough to support a low end wind advisory for Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties, matching up with the RNK office. Elsewhere across the mountains, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common with gusts up 25 mph east of the mountains. Despite the gusty winds, temperatures will likely dip into the 30s for most mountain and northern foothill areas late tonight with 40s common east of the mountains. The first patchy frost of the season will be possible for wind sheltered mountain valleys such as the Little Tennessee Valley.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Wednesday: Northwest flow remains over the area Thursday between the departing upper low and an approaching upper ridge. Winds will diminish through the day as high pressure builds into the area. Any lingering NW flow clouds will diminish as well. Highs will be around 10 degrees below normal across the mountains and around 5 degrees below normal elsewhere. Surface high pressure builds in from the west Thursday night bringing clear skies and diminishing winds. This should allow temps to fall well into the frost range across the mountains with patchy frost across much of the NC foothills and piedmont and some of the northern Upstate. The upper ridge and surface high pressure slide across the area Friday. Highs Friday will be warmer across the mountains and a little warmer elsewhere, still ending up around 5 degrees below normal. Lows Friday night will warm to around 5 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday: Guidance in agreement on the overall pattern, but some significant detail differences remain. The upper ridge slides east on Saturday with a weak northern and southern stream short wave combo moving across the eastern CONUS in the developing southwesterly flow. The GFS is faster with these waves and faster with the developing Gulf Coast low. The GFS shows moisture and precip moving into the area from the southwest on Saturday afternoon. Precip spreads across the area Saturday night then east Sunday and Sunday night as the low moves offshore. The ECMWF is slower keeping precip to our west until Saturday night with precip into Sunday before the low moves east. Have followed a model blend which has timing between the two models. Highs will be near normal both days with above normal lows Saturday night rising to well above normal Sunday night.
A deep latitude trough develops over the central CONUS as an upper low move across the northern US and a short wave rotates around the low carving out the trough to the south. The trough crosses the area late Tuesday. At the surface, moisture increases ahead of the associated cold front Monday bringing precip back into the area. The front crosses the area Tuesday with the ECMWF slightly slower than the GFS. Have limited PoP throughout the entire period to good chance given the differences. That said, significant precip with some potential for severe storms is possible Tuesday, but a lot could change by then. Highs should be a little above normal with lows well above normal.