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Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 79 Low: 65
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 74 Low: 63
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 69 Low: 55
SunnyHigh: 72 Low: 57
SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 58
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 9am, then a chance of rain showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. West southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Sunny, with a high near 73.
... A ridge of high pressure will keep hot and humid conditions, as well as, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region through Monday. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday and bring relief from the heat. Below normal temperatures and low precipitation chances are expected for the rest of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday: Convection remaining rather muted in intensity this afternoon even as the coverage increases. This is likely due to the high LFCs seen on the morning soundings keeping mlCAPE in the moderate range. However, the dCAPE on the morning soundings and on the meso-analysis is very high. If robust storms can develop, then a wet microburst is possible. Rain rates are also on the low side as well, likely for the same reasons. This is good as the storms are slow moving. Again, isolated flooding can't be ruled out should more robust cells or training of cells develop. Convection should wane with loss of heating this evening. However, and isolated shower could develop near the TN border overnight. Expect mountain valley fog to develop once again. Lows remain around 5 degrees above normal.
The upper ridge over the SE CONUS finally begins breaking down into Monday as phased short wave energy crosses the Great Lakes and moves from the Mid-West into the OH Valley. These waves begin building a trough over the eastern CONUS. The waves push a cold front toward the area as well. Forcing will increase as the waves move toward the area and heights slowly fall. Instability will not be as high as previous days, but LFCs will be lower, and deeper moisture increases. Guidance agrees that convection will initiate over the mountains a little earlier than the normal diurnal trend with numerous coverage developing. Scattered coverage expected over the foothills. Guidance shows convection over the piedmont but later than usual with low end scattered coverage at best. With muted instability and lower dCAPE than the past several days severe chances should remain isolated at best. Isolated flooding will be possible. Thickness values will begin to fall but not by much on Monday. Therefore, highs will only be a couple of degrees cooler. Dew points will still mix some during the afternoon, so heat index values should be well below 105. That said, values will approach 100 along and south of the I-85 corridor.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: Monday night will feature pre-frontal convection entering the forecast area from west to east as an upper trough digs into the southeast and a bona-fide cold front advances towards the area. Instability isn't overly impressive late Monday and lapse rates will even decrease as the pre-frontal convection moves in, so only chance pops are carried for locations outside the mountains (with likely and even categorical in the mountains where orographic forcing will be better) through Tuesday morning. The axis of the upper trough moving overhead will encourage more synoptic- scale lift ahead of the front on Tuesday during the day, with increased QPF response across the whole area as the result. Convection will get an early start on Tuesday, which leaves in question the amount of destabilization that will be able to occur by Tuesday afternoon for much of the area. Model soundings indicate that 1000-1500 J/kg may be able to materialize in the NC/SC Piedmont areas, though, and if any mid-level dry air can slide in (as some hi- res guidance suggests, some strong to severe wind gusts could be possible with any storms that develop. Shear and lapse rates still remain pretty unimpressive on Tuesday, so think any chance at organized severe storms is low. High PWATs and potentially very slow storm motion may end up being the bigger problem on Tuesday, and any areas that se repeated rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms could be at risk for some isolated flash flood concerns through Tuesday night.
Though previous model runs showed the front stalling and hanging up over our forecast area, recent runs seem to have come into agreement that the surface front will remain progressive and swing through the Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon, despite the upper pattern amplifying and remaining generally blocked. Drier and much cooler air will filter in behind the front on Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will struggle to break 80 for much of the area with widespread cloud cover and convection expected, and below-climo temps will continue through Wednesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: By the time the medium range picks up, the frontal boundary will be well through the area and camped out over the coastal Carolinas, with upper troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Dry and cooler Canadian surface high pressure will be allowed to expand into the southeast as an upper anticylcone amplifies over the Four Corners region through Friday, and though temperatures will moderate back to near normal by the weekend as heights rise aloft, we will be able to enjoy some cooler and drier air behind the cold front for the end of the work week.
Over the weekend, guidance supports moisture return as the surface high migrates offshore, and with a weak upper low/height weakness drifting into the southeast Saturday and Sunday, pops will increase slightly both afternoons.