|Dew Point:||39°F (4°C)|
|Wind Chill:||NA°F (NA°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.14 in (1020 mb)|
Chance Light RainLow: 35
Patchy Fog then Partly SunnyHigh: 50 Low: 40
Rain ShowersHigh: 50 Low: 33
Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 16
M.L. King Jr. Day
SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 23
A chance of rain before 2am, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. West northwest wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain between 10pm and midnight, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain between midnight and 1am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. South southeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West southwest wind 12 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
A chance of rain showers before 7am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 7am and 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly clear, with a low around 16.
Sunny, with a high near 36.
Mostly clear, with a low around 23.
... A weak cold front will cross the region tonight, bringing some light rain and a wintry mix to portions of the mountains. A stronger and wetter system will move in over the weekend, followed by very cold high pressure early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1025 pm...still a few small patches of light rain over the wrn Piedmont, so the residual small precip chance looks good there. Upstream radars also support keeping a relatively high precip chance near the TN border for the next several hours. The biggest problem is the ongoing Winter Wx Advisory issued for Avery County based on earlier sfc temps and wet bulb temps below freezing, which probably led to a few patches of freezing rain earlier this evening. The warming temp trend continues in that area so it seems unlikely that we will see any additional wintry weather past midnight.
Temps will slowly warm overnight, as in situ CAD gives way to weak warm advection on W/SW low level flow. Some precip (primarily in the form of drizzle) will remain possible near the Tennessee border through the overnight in association with mechanical lift. Even these precip chances should come to an end by mid-morning Friday, with clearing skies expected during the afternoon, especially east of the mountains. This will allow max temps to rebound to about a category above climo.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday: the short-term fcst picks up at 00z on Sat with relatively flat upper ridging in place over the Southeast and broad upper trofing digging down over the Southern Plains. The upper trof will amplify as it approaches our region and is expected to move over the fcst area on Sunday. The trof axis will then move offshore as we go into the extended period.
At the sfc, broad but relatively weak high pressure will be in place over the region to start the period. At the same time, a strong low pressure system will be developing over the Southern Plains. The low will track eastward and then northeastward as it approaches the fcst area on Sat. The latest guidance has the center of the low passing just to our north by early Sunday as its associated cold front remains largely to our south. By late Sunday, the low will lift up and over the New England Coast as robust NW flow lingers over the CWFA. Temps are still expected to remain well above frz across the CWFA as the low moves over the area on Sat/Sun. As cold-air advection ramps up Sunday morning, snow showers are likely across the higher terrain, especially along the NC/Tenn Border. Accums aren't looking very high, as most of the deeper moisture has moved east of the area by the time the colder air works its way in. A bigger concern will be the potential for a flash freeze as temps fall below frz across most of the TN border counties by noon, and even further south and east by mid-aftn. Winds also pick up, and could briefly approach wind advisory criteria during the aftn and evening hours. With temps expected to fall into the single digits and teens over the high elevations, wind chills could fall into the -5 to -15 F range by daybreak Monday. A wind chill advisory will likely be needed for the Northern Mountains for late Sunday night thru Monday morning.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Monday with a progressive upper trof moving off the East Coast as broad upper ridging spreads over the Central CONUS in its wake. The ridge axis is expected to move over our area on Tues as another deep and progressive upper trof digs down across the Southwest CONUS. The latest guidance has the trof approaching the fcst area late Wed with the trof axis lifting over the area on Thurs with the broader upper trof lingering over the Eastern CONUS beyond day 7. At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will spreading over the region from the NW as a Nor'Easter moves off the New England Coast. Over the next 48 hrs or so, the high will drift SE and is expected to be centered just off the Atlantic Coast by late Tues/early Wed. At the same time, another low gets ejected out of the Plains and brings a strong cold front to our doorstep. The front is expected to move thru the CWFA on Thurs, as the period is ending, with drying likely behind it. As for the sensible fcst, no major changes were needed as most of the period will be dry with PoPs ramping up to low-end likely by late Wed. The higher terrain will probably get some more sct snow showers early Wed, and more likely earlier Thurs, once the cold front moves thru. Temps will start out well below normal on Monday and warm to near normal, if not slightly above, by Wed.