|Dew Point:||29.5°F (-1.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the South at 5.6 MPH Gusting to 8.1 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||24°F (-4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.71" (1006.0 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 29
SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 35
RainHigh: 45 Low: 38
Rain ShowersHigh: 43 Low: 25
Sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 44. West wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind around 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 44. South wind around 7 mph.
A chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain before 8pm, then rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
... Dry high pressure will linger through midweek. Another low pressure system is then expected to develop to our west and bring widespread precipitation to the region for Thursday and Friday. As the low moves out on Saturday, high pressure will return for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 922 AM EST Monday: Some patches of thicker mid-level clouds moving overhead this morning, and that appears to be slowing the warmup across parts of the region. Will modify the temperature trend thru late morning, but no need to give up on the high temps just yet.
Otherwise, the near-term will be very quiet in the wake of the weekend system, with NW flow continuing over the area with a little wiggle shortwave pushing over the region today. A deep system will be gearing up over the Rockies, inducing downstream ridging over the Plains, which in turn will keep our flow from the NW today. With downsloping NW winds at the surface and nearly full sun (expect some lingering NW flow cloudiness in the mountains through early afternoon or until the moisture finally dries up), temperatures will warm nicely, a 5-7 degrees above seasonal normals, and the warmest day since December 3. Really absolutely beautiful out there today, but with possibly some occasionally gusty winds especially in the mountains as the wiggle in the flow moves across aloft. Lows tonight will be pretty close to normal as cool high pressure across the Great Lakes gets pushed this way as the wavetrain works its way east. A dry front on the leading edge of the surface high will move in toward the end of the period, to affect temps as we move into the short term.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM Mon: The short term period looks largely uneventful. On Tuesday sfc high pressure will migrate from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal Tuesday under sunny skies. While return flow sets up over the high Tuesday night, it is not until late in the day Wednesday that moisture becomes sufficient to expect a sharp uptick in cloud cover. Temps will fall back to about normal. Precip chances do return Wednesday night in the ensuing upglide, though the moist layer remains shallow thru daybreak Thursday. Models have trended later with the precip onset, so Wed night PoPs have been lowered from the previous fcst. The precip is expected to be all rain except on the very highest ridges of the northern mountains, but most likely they will warm Thursday morning before precip begins.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Mon: As a sharp upper trough pushes across the Mississippi Valley, possibly with an embedded cutoff low, cyclogenesis will occur Thursday to our southwest. Model consensus suggests the resultant low generally will track rapidly up the western side of the Appalachians, ending up near Lake Ontario by the end of Friday.
The moist upglide already underway at the start of the period will strengthen and peak late Thursday, and categorical PoPs already look like a good bet thru early Friday now that the model solutions have converged. The incumbent airmass does not look particularly cold, and furthermore the track of the low and prog profiles suggest the precip in this timeframe will be all liquid over the populated areas of the CWFA (snow could occur on the very highest peaks). There is a bit of discrepancy in the models in how they depict wraparound precip east of the mountains, if any, mainly timing differences of a few hours. This has been handled by delaying the decline of PoPs a bit on Friday. By early evening, with cold advection starting on the back side of the low, snow levels will fall over the higher terrain as the primary forcing becomes northwest flow. Saturation remains over a rather deep layer during this time, with some Great Lakes fetch, implying light accumulation is possible where it is cold enough. Brisk winds will also be experienced across the mountains, but current indications suggest they won't be unusually strong for this time of year.
Moisture diminishes late Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds in from the middle of the country. This will help bring low temps back to around normal, but highs will stay above normal east of the mountains in downslope flow. The ECMWF depicts a clipper bringing another chance of precip to the mountains at the very end of the period Sunday night, with temps supportive of snow. The GFS shows no such feature, at least not yet, so the chance is kept very small in the forecast.