|Dew Point:||-999.0°F (-572.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.08" (1018.5 mb)|
Patchy FogLow: 65
Patchy FogHigh: 69 Low: 56
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 60 Low: 55
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 61 Low: 58
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 74 Low: 63
Patchy fog and scattered rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Patchy fog and a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of rain showers before midnight, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain likely before 8am, then rain likely and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain likely and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain likely and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain likely before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... A cold front will move from the eastern Great Lakes and push through the area late tonight. The front will stall south of the area over the weekend, before moving north as a warm front next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Convection has raced ahead of the cold front, which is still crossing Lake Erie. On the whole, the convection is weakening as it is strung out parallel to the flow and diurnal heating has diminished. While the northwest portion of the CWA still has the highest chance of seeing precipitation tonight, a lot of guidance significantly breaks apart the remaining convection before it reaches the CWA. A mid level stable layer seen in both the PBZ and IAD soundings will help inhibit the remaining updrafts as well. Lightning trends are down, so will be reducing the thunder coverage in the forecast.
There is still some potential for isolated to scattered showers as the front pushes into the area overnight, but will look at reducing PoPs a bit based on trends. The front should push toward central Virginia and southern Maryland by morning. With the late arrival time and dew points in the 70s ahead of the front, so patchy fog could develop where winds are able to subside. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... By Saturday morning, the front should be roughly located across central Virginia and southern Maryland. The front will settle south of the region on Saturday with cooler and drier northerly flow setting up. This should actually keep much of the area dry during the day Saturday. Across central VA and into the Potomac Highlands, some afternoon showers/storms may develop closer to the frontal boundary, with heavy rain being the primary threat. Highs from 70-80F.
Conditions then become favorable for a return to wet conditions Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday night as upper level energy interacts with southwest flow bringing in additional moisture overrunning the boundary to our south. Periods of rain and showers will become likely during this time with cool conditions under northerly surface flow. Given wet antecedent conditions, a flood threat may present itself, but placement and intensity of heaviest rain is uncertain at this time. Temperatures Sunday will remain in the 60s to near 70F. Lows in the 50s to near 60F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday into Tuesday, a weak upper level ridge will be positioned over the mid-Atlantic region. A shortwave trough moving through the ridging flow will create lift over our region. The general low level flow will be off of the Atlantic which will transport moisture into the region and set up the potential for heavy rain showers both Monday and Tuesday. The combination of PW's above a inch and a half and half and the instability from the shortwave trough will lead to the formation of showers and storms Monday into Tuesday especially during peak heating periods. Temperatures will slow rise through Tuesday with peak temperatures in the 60s on Monday and the 70s on Tuesday.
Wednesday into Thursday, winds will shift out of the south as a warm front moves northward. The region will be in a pre frontal region leading to increasing moisture levels with PW's up near the two inch mark. A broad upper level trough will approach from the west leading to our region being on the eastern side of the trough. There while be enough vorticity to provide instability over our region. The instability coupled with our daytime heating and high PW's will lead to the potential for showers and storms with some strong storms and heavy showers possible. High temperatures will reach into the 80s by Thursday.