|Dew Point:||16.2°F (-8.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.29" (1025.6 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 43 Low: 22
Mostly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 28
Chance Light SnowHigh: 42 Low: 30
RainHigh: 47 Low: 37
Clear, with a low around 16. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 43. West wind 2 to 6 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 22. West wind 2 to 6 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. South wind around 3 mph.
A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Rain after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
... High pressure will build over the region tonight and hold through Thursday night. A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the end of the week bringing widespread rain and potential for flooding.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Mostly clear and cold conditions are expected tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds eastward and into the region. There remains some high cirrus over the southeastern half of the area, but as thin as they are they should have little impact on radiational cooling. The coldest temperatures will likely be across areas that have fresh snowpack, and portions of the Shenandoah Valley have already tumbled into the low teens as of 9 PM. Overnight lows will range in the teens and 20s for most locations, but some single digit readings will likely occur, especially in the Harrisonburg-Staunton area.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil conditions next 48 hrs under high pressure. Very cold conditions expected Tuesday night as well under clear skies and dry air mass.
A weak moisture starved system will move across the Great Lks late Wed night. This will bring a chance of snow primarily west of I-81 with less than an inch of accumulation expected in the favored upslope area of Bayard WV.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A shortwave disturbance will depart off to the northeast Thursday morning, and ridging will build in aloft. As a result, dry conditions are expected. There could be a bit more cloud cover than previous days as high clouds start to stream in ahead of a more significant system located off to our southwest. High temperatures will reach into the low-mid 40s.
Meanwhile, a high amplitude trough will eject from the Four Corners region onto the Southern Plains during the day Thursday. This trough will become meridionally elongated in nature Thursday Night, and eventually become cut off from the northern stream flow during the day Friday as it tracks across the lower Mississippi Valley. This trough will be highly anomalous in nature, with standardized anomalies of 500 hPa height dipping to -5 to -6 over Louisiana at 12z Friday. The highly anomalous nature, and slow forward motion of the trough will allow it to draw moisture northward out of the tropics. By midday Friday, a fairly expansive plume of precipitable water values between 1.5-2 inches will be located just downstream of the trough over the southeast US. As the system progresses further along, this plume of moisture will reach our area, with most model guidance indicating precipitable water values around 1.25-1.5 inches locally. Those values would be near, or potentially above the record daily values for the IAD sounding location. Given the high moisture content and strong forcing for ascent downstream of the potent mid-level trough, heavy rainfall appears likely across the region Friday afternoon through much of Friday Night. Nearly all of the deterministic guidance, as well as the ensemble means of the GEFS and EPS produce well in excess of an inch with the system. As a result, flooding could become a concern, especially over areas that have residual snowcover from yesterday's storm.
Moving into the weekend, model solutions begin to diverge a bit. The GFS moves the cutoff upper trough overhead on Saturday, while the Euro progresses it along a bit slower. There's a variety of solutions in both the GEFS and EPS as well, so overall the forecast for Saturday and Sunday are low confidence in terms of timing out any precipitation. Generally speaking, it should be a fairly cloudy weekend, with at least chances for showers and near to above normal temperatures.