|Dew Point:||33.3°F (0.7°C)|
|Wind:||From the West at 13.2 MPH Gusting to 20.1 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||-9999.00" (-338566.1 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 73 Low: 60
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 68 Low: 57
Rain ShowersHigh: 58 Low: 55
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 60 Low: 56
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 62 Low: 59
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 1 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Northeast wind 1 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 1pm and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
... A strong cold front arrives tonight, and then stalls near the region over the weekend. This front should lift north as a warm front on Monday night. Another cold front moves in mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 842 PM Friday... Tweaked hourly temperature and pop forecast based on current trends. Cold front appears to be nudging closer to the CWA, starting to enter Perry county Ohio at this hour, and progged to be in the Ohio River vcnty between 03-06Z.
As of 300 PM Friday...
A very warm and humid afternoon will promote diurnal convection across the lowlands, and elevated heat sources.
The environment is characterized by sfc based CAPE reaching 2000 J/Kg, poor deep layered shear, high PWATs reaching 2 inches, and sfc dewpoints around 70 degrees. A strong cold front will encounter these conditions to enhanced showers and storms mainly late this afternoon and evening. The actual front will cross the OH River around 03Z. Portions of the area are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Expecting an organized line of convection involving into a QLCS. The greatest threat will be damaging winds.
Models show that the aforementioned cold front could stall over the area tonight into Saturday, with showers likely still ongoing southeast of it, while drier and cooler air pushes into the middle Ohio Valley behind it. Low to mid level stratus could form behind the front. Boundary layer winds about 15 to 20 knots and some cloudiness will prevent dense fog formation, with the exception of the well protected river valleys.
Went with a blend of previous forecast and the latest NBM guidance for temperatures through the period.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 PM Friday...
The main issue through the remainder of the weekend and into Monday will be the fickle front sitting over the Mid-Atlantic. By Saturday night into Sunday it appears based on a blend of operational models that the front should stall over the southernmost counties of the CWFA. This will keep most of the area in an perfect set-up for overrunning precipitation on Sunday as warm, moist air aloft via a southwesterly flow spills over cool, moist air at and near the surface under a northeast to north flow. Some sort of ripple is shown to move along the front at 500 mb from back in the mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday night toward the Tennessee River Valley by Sunday morning and toward the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians by later Sunday. This should help to enhance rainfall potential and thus amounts over the southern half of the area especially on Sunday afternoon. PoPs were bumped up over these areas, especially in the higher terrain as a result of this. Model cross sections from the GFS are moist from the surface all the way up over these areas. Precipitable water values over the southern third of the area are progged to be near or above 1.5 inches which per the SPC sounding climatology is about near the 90% highest range for this time of the year. Thus the threat for locally heavy rain and localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas or flooding exists, especially if we get any repeated rounds of rain hitting the same areas.
Given the cloud cover, low temps will remain above normal. Highs Sunday north of the frontal boundary are tricky and we may be a little too warm especially as the northeast flow sets up. Many areas may stay stuck in the 60s. As a result the area will remain too stable for thunderstorms and thunder was limited to only the very far southern edge of the area. By Sunday night, the front will start to lift north across the area, shutting the intensity of the rain off especially over far southern areas but shifting the heavy rain potential north into the central parts of the area. Lows will be a couple of degrees higher Sunday night in areas that get south of the warm front and into the warm sector. In addition with the warm soupy air mass over the area, fog is likely across the area Sunday night and it could be dense.
The warm front will continue to push north across the area on Monday spreading the heavy rain potential north with it. Again, the prospects for localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas and flooding will continue mainly over the northern half of the area. Areas south of the front will stay on the cloudy side but may get some sun though the shower chances will be a little lower than areas further north. Highs Monday will near normal over central and southern areas as they move back into the warm sector.
Shower chances will decrease across most areas Sunday night as the warm front pulls further to the north with the best chances over northern areas. Again, areas of fog may develop. Lows will once again be about 10 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 515 PM Friday...
Tuesday may not be all that wet across much of the area as we stay in the warm sector in a south to southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front that moves into western Ohio and the western Ohio River Valley. I did lower PoPs down in areas south and east of Charleston. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest over the western parts of the area. If we get enough sun across the area, highs in most valleys will make a run at the low to even mid 80s.
The main issue in the Wednesday-Thursday period will be the aforementioned cold front that is expected to move across and then slowly sink south across the area. Timing is faster on the 12Z operational ECMWF than the 12Z operational GFS and we used a blend of the two. The GFS shows surface computed CAPEs over 1000 j/kg over the area so the chance for thunderstorms exists with some potential for severe weather not out of the question. Rainfall will also need to be watched as the GFS shows PWATs nearing 2 inches by Wednesday afternoon over the Ohio River Valley especially near and southwest of Huntington. Given the threat of heavy rain over the weekend, again this will need to be watched for additional threat of flooding. Depending on how quick the front heads east, showers may shut off by later Thursday over the northwest part over the area mainly in Ohio. Temps will remain above normal especially for lows.
There does not look like a great push of cold air behind this front for Thursday night into Friday though temperatures should drop back closer to normal for highs with lows still about 5-7 degrees above normal. It is possible with the front moving slowly to the east on Friday and additional waves developing along it that showers could stay around, especially in eastern areas, into Friday. Temps were mainly based on the National Model Blend in the extended.