|Dew Point:||32.6°F (0.3°C)|
|Wind:||From the West at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 6.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.32" (857.3 mb)|
Light RainHigh: 37 Low: 34
Sleet LikelyHigh: 35 Low: 22
Mostly SunnyHigh: 34 Low: 26
Sleet Likely then Rain LikelyHigh: 36 Low: 28
Chance Light Snow then Partly SunnyHigh: 35 Low: 27
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Southeast wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain likely before 8am, then sleet likely and rain likely between 8am and 11am, then sleet likely and rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 12 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
A chance of snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
A slight chance of freezing rain between 1am and 2am, then a chance of freezing rain and a slight chance of snow between 2am and 3am, then a chance of snow and a chance of sleet and a chance of freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then a chance of sleet and a chance of freezing rain and a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Sleet likely and freezing rain likely before 8am, then freezing rain and a chance of sleet between 8am and noon, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. New ice accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Freezing rain likely before 8pm, then sleet likely and rain likely between 8pm and 10pm, then sleet likely and rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of freezing rain between 7am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
... Low pressure tracks east of the area, while cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday. Another low tracks over the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Cold front Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 223 PM Monday...
High resolution models show a developing sfc low pressure center, tracking north northeast along the spine of the Appalachians tonight into Tuesday. This low pressure will produce pcpn across the eastern half of the area, while the FROPA will produce additional light pcpn across northeast KY, southeast OH, southwest VA and the rest of WV. Coded categorical PoPs per model consensus across the eastern half of the area tonight. Increase PoPs from west to east accounting for FROPA pcpn tonight.
Vertical temperature profiles indicate warm layer aloft dominating the pcpn type to all liquid. Models are in agreement bringing strong cold air advection late overnight tonight under northwest flow. However, expect low qpf along the cold front to produce light rain showers. Perhaps, colder air filters in near the sfc to produce a period of mixed rain and ice pellets or snow spreading from west to east Tuesday morning. By mid day, all pcpn will be transition back to liquid, expect upslope snow over the northeast mountains, diminishing towards Tuesday evening. However, amounts will be minimal, as precipitation will be ending from the west at the time the best cold air moves over the area.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s, with freezing temperatures over portions of southeast OH and northeast mountains of WV. Highs on Tuesday will only increase few degrees during the day, barely reaching the lower 40s central sections of WV.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Monday...
5H trough digs across the Great Lakes as moisture pulls to the east. We will see a slight rebound in height values into Wednesday night as southern stream system makes its approach. A warm-occluded front in association with nearly barotropic southern stream low will track north Wednesday night and Thursday. Secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast of the US to close out the period. A lot is going to hinge on timing the precip onset Wednesday night, and how rapidly low levels are scoured out west of the Appalachian range. There are considerable differences in how the models are handling the details, mainly due to how fast they shift the cut-off low northward. For the big picture, track and placement of system points to a warm wedge working up through central WV and the OH valley with considerable cold air damming occurring east of the Appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Have generally trended toward the faster GFS model, in terms of how quickly warmer air makes its way in. Still could see a period over several hours where a wintry mix of precipitation occurs late Wednesday and early Thursday. Atmospheric column warms up considerably during the day on Thursday for a quick transition to all liquid. However, some colder spots in elevated mountain valleys may have some lingering -FZRA into the daytime hours. Since there is still some uncertainty in the models in these dynamic conditions, have elected to hold of on possible headlines.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM Monday...
Afore-mentioned southern stream system pulls out Friday and Saturday. The GFS is faster clearing the system, but lingering showers over the east mountains will still be in play Saturday. Then a cold Canadian airmass settles in across the northern tier of the US. Models generally agree that a cold front will sag across the region Saturday night, furthering our chances for some light snow, as 5h trough sweeps across the Great Lakes. Tough axis shifts into the northeastern quadrant of the US by Monday for continued unseasonably cool weather. Model blends were accepted.