|Dew Point:||3.4°F (-15.9°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.36" (858.7 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: -8
Mostly SunnyHigh: 25 Low: 20
Freezing Rain Likely then Light RainHigh: 43 Low: 29
Light Snow then Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 30 Low: 12
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 17 Low: 5
Mostly clear, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -23. East wind 5 to 8 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -24. South wind 7 to 14 mph.
A slight chance of freezing rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy. Low around 20, with temperatures rising to around 27 overnight. South wind 12 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Freezing rain likely before 10am, then rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43. South wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Rain before 4am, then snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Snow before 9am, then a chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.
... Arctic high pressure slides northeast overnight. Another rain to snow system Wednesday into Thursday. Cold fronts reinforce colder air through next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 815 PM Monday...
Dry arctic air remains in place across the region as a strong surface high centered in Ohio moves through the forecast area overnight. Surface observations indicate that calm winds are common across the area and with clear skies (for now), temperatures have been falling quickly. However, RGB Nighttime Microphysics shows high level cirrus approaching from the west as upstream upper level moisture advances across the region overnight on the backside of a departing upper level trough. The slight increase in high level clouds tonight presents a tricky low temperature forecast scenario for this evening. Thus, have lowered temps below most guidance but thinking that the rate temps drop after around 06Z should lessen as cloud cover will attempt to hinder full effects of radiational cooling.
In addition, have cancelled the wind chill advisory in the mountains as latest obersvations from snowshoe indicate that winds are light and temps slowly rise. This should be the trend through the remainder of the night in higher elevations where WAA takes control above the boundary layer.
As of 150 PM Monday...
High pressure to the west slides over the area and builds to 1040mb. In the meantime this will aide in clear skies, northwesterly flow and cold dry air. Overnight a short wave trough slides through the area with a plume of moisture at the mid levels which sweeps across the area from West to East causing some scattered mid clouds. Due to radiational cooling expected tonight most areas will be in the single digits for the second night. The high pressure then slides northeast allowing flow to shift southeasterly and creating some much needed warm air advection for tomorrow. Expect Tuesday highs to be in the mid 40's. The higher terrains will see above freezing temperatures reaching as high as upper 30's. Winds will be generally light and variable through the night, but pick up in the afternoon with the help of afternoon mixing. The mountains will experience a cold breeze with possible gusts reaching near 20kts. Lower clouds will start to approach from the west due to the low pressure system moving in as high pressure finally exits.
Due to the winds slightly tapering off and temperatures warming, dropped the Wind Chill Warning for the mountains, however issued a Wind Chill Advisory to 06Z for the same area. With the sufficient radiational cooling tonight that will allow for very cold temperatures again along with winds around 20kts, criteria was met for issuance. The oncoming shift may have to extend later on.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Monday...
Precipitation will move back into the area for Wednesday as a low pressure system and upper trough move into the area. Good southerly flow out ahead of the system will aid both in high moisture transport to the region, and lead to a quick warm up in temperatures throughout the day, with any wintry precipitation Wednesday morning quickly changing over to rain. Still have a few hundredths of an inch of ice coded for parts of the northern mountains to start Wednesday, which may need to be addressed in future shifts. Front crosses the area Wednesday night, and slows down slightly as it does so, as a low pressure wave develops and moves northeast into the mid Atlantic. Water amounts will also need to be closely watched during this time period.
System will exit to the east of the area Thursday, with any lingering precipitation gradually changing over to snow, with light accumulations possible, mainly across the higher terrain counties.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday...
A series of disturbances, along with occasional snow showers and colder temperatures looks to dominate the period.