|Dew Point:||-9.0°F (-22.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the WSW at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 3.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.21" (853.6 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: 20
SunnyHigh: 32 Low: 19
Mostly SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 26
Slight Chance Light Snow then Mostly CloudyHigh: 36 Low: 30
Chance Freezing Rain then Light Rain LikelyHigh: 43 Low: 35
Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Northwest wind around 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 32. West wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 19. West wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 6 to 13 mph.
A slight chance of snow and a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of snow and a slight chance of freezing rain before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of freezing rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
A chance of freezing rain before 7am, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain likely before 7pm, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... High pressure dominates through Wednesday. Upper level trough passes Wednesday night. Strong storm set to impact the area late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 955 PM Monday...
Updated temperatures to level off or even rise slightly overnight, on arrival of stratus from the north. The stratus, though, was having a tough time making southward progress.
As of 720 PM Monday...
Updated for a more aggressive southward creep of stratus into the area overnight, which may also impact the temperature forecast.
As of 130 PM Monday...
High pressure building in from the south this afternoon has helped deplete clouds in the southern half of the CWA, while the northern extent remains locked under low level clouds trapped beneath the inversion. These low hanging clouds will linger overnight and progress towards the northeast portion of the CWA for the first half of the day Tuesday.
Mostly clear skies and light winds during the overnight period will allow for efficient radiational cooling to occur. Therefore, went with low temperatures in the upper teens for the Lowlands, while areas still under snowpack will likely radiate even colder into the low teens.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday...
High pressure Tuesday night provides generally fair skies and light winds, which should help temperatures in our snow covered southern valleys to dip below guidance again. A weak system passes across the Great Lakes in fast flow aloft Wednesday night into Thursday. This system only grazes our northern counties with shallow moisture and weak lift, thus only low PoPs were carried Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Have surface temps near freezing at this time, so some light rain, freezing rain or drizzle are all possible over our northern counties, but again, PoPs are very low. Low level flow then turns southeasterly Thursday as the next system approaches from the southwest. This should yield warmer temps with highs warming into the 40s to low 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday...
Vertically stacked low pressure system will be traversing across the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. Ahead of this system, strengthening southeasterly flow will place our region in a WAA regime by Friday morning with widespread precipitation increasing in coverage from south to north across the forecast area. Do expect the southeast flow will create a rather strong downslope signal in QPF with the GFS suggesting 850 mb wind speeds of 60+ knots. As precipitation initially arrives Friday morning, there is some potential of freezing rain or mixed precipitation along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Ridge with surface temperatures expected to hover around freezing. However, this threat should be rather brief as southerly flow should scour out any sub-freezing air near the surface by mid to late morning. Thus, the majority of precipitation on Friday is expected to occur as rain. The rain could be heavy at times and flooding could be a concern, especially in areas that were affected by the recent snowfall event as a combination of meltwater from snow and heavy rain could further exacerbate that threat. This will be something to watch closely throughout the week.
Model solutions begin to diverge by Saturday evening as the GFS lifts the upper level low towards central VA while the slower (and farther south) ECMWF solution brings the system into the southeast US. While either scenario still supports continued precipitation chances into Saturday, the GFS solution introduces the potential of a dry slot to move into our area to perhaps keep the precipitation on Saturday slightly more showery in nature than the ECMWF. By Sunday, model solutions continue to diverge even further as the ECMWF brings the system off the Mid Atlantic coast while the GFS shifts the system into New England. Should the GFS solution verify, more precipitation would occur on Sunday as wrap around moisture spreads across the area and upslope snow showers impact the mountains. For now, have left slight chance POPs in the forecast to reflect this scenario until better model agreement occurs.