|Dew Point:||72.4°F (22.4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.01" (1016.1 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 86 Low: 66
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 70 Low: 56
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly CloudyHigh: 65 Low: 52
SunnyHigh: 68 Low: 53
SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 56
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 70. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunny, with a high near 73.
... Warm, humid conditions will continue today with afternoon/evening storm chances. Frontal passage will bring rain throughout the day Monday, followed by cooler, dry weather for much of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Scattered and discontinuous convection continues along a very slow moving and diffuse cold front stretching from approximately Coshocton OH eastward towards Pittsburgh and into Westmoreland County PA. With very moist levels and plenty of morning/afternoon insolation, MLCAPE values in the vicinity are in excess of 2500 J/kg for much of the region. Combined with virtually no capping, storms should continue to initiate along this boundary over the next few hours, despite little in the way of upper forcing currently.
With steep low-level lapse rates and the presence of some mid-level dry air, strong downdrafts / damaging wind gusts will be possible. There is also a threat for localized flash flooding in urban or other especially susceptible areas as storms train west to east along the boundary. Thankfully, as of now, the convection along the line is discontinuous and may remain that way with little in the way of synoptic lift.
Convective activity should initially wane a bit overnight as the lower atmosphere stabilizes, though a few scattered showers are still possible in close proximity to the frontal boundary.
Some convective-allowing models (CAMs) do suggest an uptick in activity late overnight in association with some mid-level energy / shortwave ahead of the main trough axis digging across the Ohio Valley. Cloud cover and moist-low level air will keep temperatures warm once again overnight. Lows will range from the mid 60s in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor to mid 70s elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... By Monday morning, storms will likely be ongoing along/near the aforementioned frontal boundary. At this time, the cold front will be stalled, bisecting the CWA. Exact placement is somewhat uncertain and will ultimately depend on the convective evolution overnight tonight.
Impressive shortwave trough will dig into the upper midwest Monday evening and shift eastward overnight. This energy will push the front southeastward, and it will reach the mid-atlantic region by early Tuesday morning. Showers will end from NW to SE Monday night. Cooler and much less humid air will spread across the region behind the exiting rain.
Precipitation amounts on Monday will vary from from around half an inch in places north of Pittsburgh to possibly in excess of an inch along/south of the Mason-Dixon line and also in locations that see multiple storms move across.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cool, comparatively dry air will filter in behind the cold front on Tuesday. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out as cool air moves over a warm Lake Erie, but otherwise most locales will be dry. Cloud cover will gradually decrease through the day as high pressure builds into the region.
Seasonal or even slightly below seasonal temperatures are expected across the area through much of next week. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend as southerly flow returns and high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast. Ensembles and blended guidance are showing a dry long term.