|Dew Point:||54.4°F (12.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 10.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.32" (1026.6 mb)|
Rain ShowersHigh: 58 Low: 57
Rain Showers Likely then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 70 Low: 62
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 69 Low: 52
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 62 Low: 54
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 64 Low: 50
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 64.
... Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected with a series of crossing disturbances through mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds should continue to increase ahead of a series of shortwave troughs embedded in southwest flow. At the surface, warm, moist air continues to advect northward and above a diffuse warm frontal boundary somewhere near the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line.
By mid-afternoon, rain will begin to overspread the region south-to-north as the first of several shortwaves embedded in southwest flow move through. Forcing from the DPVA of each shortwave will be maximized in the vicinity of the Ohio River on the WV/OH border. Operational and ensemble consensus depicts, through 12z Tuesday, a corridor of 1-2" along the WV portion of the Ohio to around 1 inch in Pittsburgh and lesser northeast.
While that is a "decent" amount of rainfall on top of an already-wet September, flood guidance is in reasonable good shape from the couple of recent dry days. Flooding is still possible, but given the isolated nature of which it would happen, have not issued a flood watch.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation will likely still be ongoing over the area Tuesday morning, but will likely come to an end as DNVA and comparatively dry mid-level air follows the last of the series of shortwaves.
While some isolated convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon, especially in areas west of PA, the main show will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as convection initiates and organizes along a cold front or just ahead along a pre-frontal trough. Low-level warm air advection and some diurnal heating (especially Pittsburgh southwestward where breaks in clouds are possible) will combine through the day Tuesday to destabilize the low-levels. Models depict a corridor of 1500+ J/kg MU CAPE along or west of the Ohio, decreasing towards the east. Sufficient bulk shear and favorable low- level hodographs support a limited tornado threat Tuesday night for regions west of PA with discrete convective cells. By early Wednesday morning, convection should congeal and severe-mode will transition towards a wind-event. However, near-surface instability may hinder full potential of downward momentum, thus limiting the overall severe threat.
Precip should clear much of the region by mid-afternoon Wednesday. A lagging upper-level front and moist air will keep cloud cover around for another day.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Temperatures will be near seasonal through much of the long term period. While global model solutions begin to diverge this weekend, a general consensus depicts another cold front, this one moisture-limited, moving through the region Friday. High pressure building in behind this front should keep temperatures near seasonal and limit the possibility of precipitation through at least the weekend.