|Dew Point:||23.3°F (-4.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.04" (1017.2 mb)|
Patchy Freezing Drizzle then CloudyLow: 19
Light SnowHigh: 32 Low: 29
Chance Snow Showers then Slight Chance Light SnowHigh: 35 Low: 25
Chance Light Snow then SleetHigh: 36 Low: 29
Light Snow LikelyHigh: 33 Low: -2
Patchy freezing drizzle before 7pm, then patchy freezing drizzle and isolated snow showers between 7pm and midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Snow after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 32. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
Snow before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
A chance of snow showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of snow and a slight chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
A slight chance of snow and a slight chance of freezing rain before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of snow and a chance of sleet between 10am and noon, then sleet and rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Rain likely before 8am, then sleet likely between 8am and 9am, then snow likely and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... Two rounds of wintry precipitation will be possible throughout the week--tomorrow evening/night and Saturday into Sunday. Colder weather anticipated by the beginning of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A few snow showers are possible this evening with the passage of a cold front. Low level ridging is expected to build overnight, with dry weather returning. Low level stratocu should decrease some later tonight, though mid level clouds ahead of the next approaching low are expected to stream across the region. Lows should be near seasonal levels.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A sfc low will track from the Midwest and reach our CWA region by late morning/early afternoon Thursday. Areas north of Pittsburgh are expected to stay all snow; a rain/snow mix will linger near the PA/WV border due warm air moving in aloft from the south side of the low. An increase in snowfall amounts has expanded further south; however the majority of the region still hasn't reached winter weather advisory criteria. If anything, the ridges have a higher chance of getting a winter weather advisory from this system.
Snow and rain/snow mix will continue after midnight. The backside of the low will push the warm air aloft out and the rain/snow wintry precip will transition to all snow. By Friday morning, snow showers will remain in the ridges due to upslope while conditions elsewhere improve.
Friday and Friday night will be considered 'our moment of rest' before another system tracks into our region. Left over moisture from the previous system will keep everywhere mostly cloudy for Friday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This period is of course dominated by the well-advertised weekend storm system. The models seem to be converging on a low center track to our south Saturday/Saturday night. With southeast flow ahead of the surface low and an inverted trough reaching up toward the Mason/Dixon Line, it is apparent that enough warm air will reach northward for mixed precipitation or even a change to rain for southern portions of the forecast area. The trick, of course, is where this transition zone sets up. There could very well be a sharp gradient in snow accumulations, from perhaps less than an inch in portions of northern West Virginia, to potentially double-digit storm totals in far northwest portions of the CWA.
Elected to use the ECMWF as a guide for low-level temperature structure, as this seemed a good compromise between the warmer GFS and colder NAM. This ends up putting the main transition zone along a very rough line from ZZV to PIT to IDI. This is where freezing rain/sleet may be most prominent, with mainly snow to the north, and more rain than snow to the south. More refinement to the weather types and snow totals will occur as we get closer to this event.
Behind the low, the coldest air of the season thus far will plunge into the CWA. Single-digit low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights, along with gusty winds, will likely lead to wind chill headlines for at least a portion of the CWA. Northwest flow snow showers will continue into Monday morning as well.
As northeast U.S. troughing relaxing by the middle of next week, temperatures moderate for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system providing precipitation chances arrives by the end of the forecast period.