|Dew Point:||38.0°F (3.3°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 5.4 MPH Gusting to 10.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||47°F (8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.93" (878.0 mb)|
Lo 48 °F
Lo 52 °F
Lo 50 °F
Lo 54 °F
Lo 59 °F
A chance of rain. Patchy dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Rain likely, mainly after 5pm. Patchy dense fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 58. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 5am, then a chance of rain. Low around 52. Southeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
A chance of rain before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
surface analysis indicates that high pressure remains over the northern Mid-Atlantic this evening. A stationary front is draped southeast of the area. Dry air associated with the high pressure is continues slowing northward progress and intensity of rain, but not as much as many models expected it to. With the second trough moving northeast into the area and inducing cyclogenesis along the coast, overall chance of rain appears higher than guidance has suggested. While heavy rain resulting in any flooding concerns is certainly not expected, widespread rain looks more and more likely overnight, so will likely up POPS through at least 9Z to likely with the next scheduled grid update in about an hour.
With saturated low levels, fog development is still possible. Lows will be in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Most of the daytime hours of Wednesday will be dry as the coastal low moves away and the wedged high pressure continues to exert influence. A few showers or drizzle may linger through the day in the Allegheny Highlands. It will be cloudy across the entire area with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Meanwhile, dynamic low pressure system will be winding up over the Ohio Valley. Strong low level jet/moisture transport will overspread the area Wednesday night, resulting in a widespread moderate to perhaps locally heavy rainfall. With strong theta-e advection aloft, there may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well. If any areas in the mountains overperform on rainfall tonight, it could set the stage for minor flooding concerns, but will have to let the preceding events play out first. Otherwise the system is progressive as the dry slot works northward Thursday morning, with amounts from this wave ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches.
Jet energy will be moving off to the east on Thursday as upper level low moves overhead and takes on a negative tilt. Surface low looks to develop over northern parts of the area in response to the forcing. The amount of clearing and destabilization is in question, and if so, how much would overlap with the departing shear. So while showers will be probable by afternoon, the amount and intensity of thunderstorms is uncertain. Rain chances will diminish Thursday night as low/occluded front move to the east.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Closed upper level low will continue to move NE away from New England on Friday. Energy behind the upper trough may enhance some showers over our area. Conditions dry out into Friday night and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds over.
Shortwave trough and an approaching warm front will bring rounds of showers Saturday evening and into Monday, as the front stalls near or over our CWA. Cold front approaches from the west Monday into Tuesday keeping the unsettled weather conditions over our area.
High temperatures will be near normal mainly in the 70s and low 80s... some 60s at higher elevations.