|Dew Point:||32.0°F (0.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||27.13" (918.6 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 67 Low: 60
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 79 Low: 63
SunnyHigh: 76 Low: 60
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 76 Low: 65
Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 63
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. South wind around 9 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
... High pressure will shift offshore through this evening. A warm front will pass through the area late tonight into Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night before stalling out nearby for Friday and Saturday. The boundary will likely linger through the remainder of the weekend and into Memorial day, resulting in the potential for unsettled conditions.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A period of high clouds are expected across northern and central areas late this morning due to upward motion associated with the right entrance region of an upper-level jetmax to our northeast. This system will move away from the area this afternoon, but a few high clouds will persist along with a sct cu deck. Skies should turn out to be partly to mostly sunny for most of the day.
Canadian high pressure continue to shift to the east through this evening. Light winds this morning will turn to the south and southeast this afternoon. The southerly flow will allow for max temps to be a bit warmer than Monday...closer to climo. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 70s for most locations.
A warm front will move into the region overnight, and this may trigger a couple showers. However, it appears that any activity will be isolated or widely scattered since most of the lift will be to our north.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The warm front will pass through the region early Thursday morning and lift off to our northeast. As the front moves through our area there may be enough instability to kick off a few showers during the morning period on Thursday. Once the front moves to our northeast, our region will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. A southerly flow will lead to continued warm air advection which will transport moisture and warmer temperatures into our region. Increasing humid conditions along with temperatures rising up into the mid to upper 80s will allow CAPE values to increase into the 1500 to 2500 range. This will be an environment conducive for the formation of thunderstorms if there is a good lifting mechanism or if there is enough daytime heating to break the capping inversion.
A cold front is expected to cross into our region Thursday afternoon into evening. There still remains a lot of uncertainty on when this front will pass through our area. The models have been trending quicker with this frontal passage with the GFS being the fastest solution along with having the stronger upper level forcing. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated the areas across extreme north central Maryland to an Enhanced Risk for severe weather with a Slight Risk reaching as far south as DC and mainly north of I-66, while a Marginal Risk is highlighted for the remainder of the CWA. There will be plenty of energy for storms to feed on in this environment and the potential formation of severe storms will rely on the timing of the frontal passage and how much heating can occur before the front moves through our area. The main threat window for thunderstorms and severe weather will be the afternoon period and early evening on Thursday during peak heating. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorms and showers will be but POPs have been increased along the Mason Dixon Line to account for the increased SPC risk and new guidance keeping the highest chances for precip over our northern zones. Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the mid to upper 60s.
The cold front is expected to move through our region by early Friday. A few showers could linger into the Friday morning mainly along the Mason-Dixon Line in western Maryland. High pressure will build back into our region behind the frontal passage for Friday. Skies will become mostly clear on Friday with a mainly westerly flow. Temperatures during the day will be cooler in the low to mid 80s as compared to Thursday. Overnight temperatures into Saturday will continue to be mild in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday morning, mid to upper level ridging will crest over the Eastern Seaboard with surface high pressure stretched across the region. The high will migrate offshore on Saturday as the flow aloft transitions to more zonal in nature. At the surface, low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will place the area in the warm sector as winds turn south southwesterly and temperatures run well above normal for the latter half of May. As a result, chance POPs will be highlighted in the forecast, mainly over the higher elevations and near the Mason Dixon Line Saturday afternoon and evening.
A cold front will approach from the north on Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. Daily chances for showers/storms will continue, focused around peak heating hours as shortwave energy tracks overhead, and above normal temperatures and humidity persists. Looks to be a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity on Tuesday as high pressure transits the region. However, another shot of shortwave energy quickly approaching from the northwest may spark late day showers and thunderstorms again over the higher elevations.