|Dew Point:||25.0°F (-3.9°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.88" (910.2 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 25
Mostly Cloudy then Periods Of Light SnowHigh: 33 Low: 29
Partly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 30
Chance Light SnowHigh: 39 Low: 32
Freezing Rain LikelyHigh: 42 Low: 5
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 6 to 9 mph.
Periods of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy. High near 33, with temperatures falling to around 27 in the afternoon. South wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Periods of snow before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Partly sunny, with a high near 41. West wind 12 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind 8 to 12 mph.
A chance of snow and a chance of sleet and a chance of freezing rain between 7am and 1pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Rain before 7am, then freezing rain likely and rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Snow likely before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... A cold front will push east of the region tonight. Low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley Thursday, then cross the Mid- Atlantic Thursday night. Arctic high pressure building in from southern Canada will briefly nose into the region Friday, before a large area of low pressure develops over the Mid- Mississippi Valley tracks northeast toward the area over the weekend. The aforementioned high will build over the area early next week after the weekend storm departs.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are observed over most of our CWA at the moment, mainly north of I-66 and Rt 50. This have kept our temperatures in the 30s, while areas with no cloud cover have reached the 40s under westerly flow. Freezing drizzle was reported this morning west of the Allegheny Front and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this evening for this reason.
Other than this, dry conditions are expected elsewhere as a weak cold front moves across today and into tonight. Cloud cover will increase late tonight with temperatures generally in the 20s, reaching the teens near snowpack areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A low pressure system will approach the Great Lakes on Thursday as its associated cold front approaches our area. This system will bring (mainly light) snow into our area in the afternoon and into the evening hours, impacting the rush hour. Soundings suggest this will be a mainly snow event, with rain to our southeast. QPF values are generally at or below 0.25", which means light accumulations over our area, with snow maxima near two inches of snow most likely somewhere west of I-95 (NW VA/E WV).
Most model PoPs don't bring QPF into the I-95 corridor until after 7 or 8pm, but low/mid-level frontal forcing beneath subtle upper jet divergence suggests precipitation would more likely break out between 4 and 6pm, so trended the forecast a touch earlier than guidance. Given some moderately strong mid-level PVA, brief/locally moderate snow is possible. Temperatures will fall quickly around sunset with any untreated surfaces likely quickly becoming slippery.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Two main mid-upper level features will play a role in the forecast for this weekend. The first will be a trough embedded in the southern stream, initially located over the Southern Plains. The second will be a trough in northwesterly flow diving down from Manitoba and Ontario toward the northern tier of states. The area of low pressure that will impact the area will initially be forced nearly entirely by the southern stream system. Through the day Saturday, the trough and it's associated surface low will track off to the east-northeast across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, the trough embedded in the northern stream will track southeastward across southern Canada toward the Great Lakes. The trend in model guidance over the last few runs has been for these features to remain separate slightly longer, before ultimately phasing off to our northeast. This would favor a slightly less amplified, more southern stream driven system at least initially, and could result in a slightly further south and east track of the system. This may result in cold air being able to hold on over the region slightly longer compared to previous model runs, especially over northwestern portions of the forecast area.
As the surface low approaches from the Tennessee Valley, warm advection aloft will overspread the area by late Saturday afternoon allowing precipitation to breakout. With a strong area of high pressure to our north, cold air will be in place ahead of the system. Precipitation may initially fall in the form of a wintry mix or snow (as indicated by the 12z NAM), especially across northwestern portions of the forecast area. As the area of low pressure approaches and warm advection continues Saturday Night, most guidance has any wintry mix or snow transitioning over to rain. However, if the southeastward trend in the track of the low continues further, it's possible that northwestern portions of the forecast area hang onto frozen precipitation a bit longer into the overnight hours. The surface low will track either overhead or just to our northwest Sunday morning, allowing chances for showers to continue through the morning. Some isolated flooding may be possible as the rain falls on top of any leftover snowpack from last weekend's storm.
As the system tracks further off to our northeast it will drive a potent cold front through the area during the day Sunday. Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front falling from the 40s and 50s to the 20s by evening. This will lead to a flash freeze of any leftover standing water, and may result in hazardous travel conditions.
Sunday Night through Monday the main story will be the cold. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper single digits to teens Sunday Night, which when combined with windy conditions will lead to below zero wind chills Sunday Night. Wind chills could even approach 20 below across higher elevation locations of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge. Some residual upslope snow showers may be possible Sunday afternoon and night along the Allegheny Front, but otherwise dry conditions are expected Sunday Night and Monday. Winds will slacken off Monday Night and Tuesday, but conditions will remain dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the west.