|Dew Point:||42.0°F (5.6°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 3.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.77" (906.4 mb)|
Mostly CloudyHigh: 50 Low: 36
Mostly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 26
SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 26
SunnyHigh: 30 Low: 19
SunnyHigh: 35 Low: 30
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Southwest wind around 12 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind 12 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 41. West wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 26.
Sunny, with a high near 30.
Mostly clear, with a low around 19.
Sunny, with a high near 35.
... A weak area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will ride along a stationary boundary situated near the Mason Dixon Line tonight, with a cold front crossing the area during the day on Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday, pushing a strong cold front through the region Wednesday night. High pressure of Canadian origin will build to our north for the remainder of the work week before another system threatens the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak low propagating along the front will lift northeast tonight further away from the region. The front will finally begin to make progress through the region as a cold front through the early morning hours.
Along and just behind the front, we could see light precipitation, primarily west of the Blue Ridge. With the exception of higher elevations in WV, MD, and VA Highlands, most of the region should remain well above freezing. Thus, if any precipitation occurs, it will be mostly rain. In the higher elevations of the Appalachians however, a rain snow mix changing to all snow is possible. There is limited moisture with this system though, so if any snow accumulation occurs it should be less than one inch, or less than 2 inches along the Allegheny Front.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will come to an end as the northwesterly flow behind the cold front will lead to dry air advection. The one exception is along the Allegheny Front, where orographic lift could result in lingering light showers.
With the cold air advection behind the front, temperatures will be considerably lower than on Monday. Highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees lower than highs on Monday, or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
On the back side of the low, expect a tight pressure gradient, resulting in northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph at times and up to 30 mph along ridge lines.
By Tuesday night, winds will start to diminish and skies will clear out. This will set the stage for efficient radiational cooling conditions. Consequently, widespread freezing conditions are expected across the region, with the exception of the urban centers where the temperatures may stay just above freezing.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds in for Wednesday, continuing a trend of below normal temperatures.
A dry, arctic cold front is expected on Thanksgiving. The air behind this front is the coldest of the season so far, with temps likely not getting far from the freezing mark on Thanksgiving Day, and possibly reaching the teens in many areas Thanksgiving night. See the climate section below for a few notes on how rare this cold spell might be, though the midnight temperatures will affect this.
Did not make many changes to the grids beyond Thanksgiving as there is still considerable uncertainty with the weekend systems. Many models trended slower with the onset of precipitation, now depicting precipitation not arriving until early Saturday morning. While a later onset would be good news for most of the region, with the chance for precipitation type to be all rain increasing, there remains significant chance of some wintry weather at the onset especially west of the Blue Ridge with the potential for cold air damming. Just how persistent this wintry weather will be is yet to be determined, but anyone with travel plans Friday night into Saturday should keep an eye on evolving forecasts.
The low will likely pass us by Sunday and with a more Pacific- type air mass following it, the storm looks likely to do what the system last week did... nudge the coldest air back north of the region and leave some more moderate temperatures over our region for Sunday. Uncertainty regarding the timing of a system quickly following on the first one's heals makes the forecast for Sunday uncertain, but some rain is possible per the GFS, for example. Other models, notably the ECMWF, allow for more of a gap between the systems, which would make Sunday a fairly decent travel day. Stay tuned...