|Dew Point:||42.0°F (5.6°C)|
|Wind:||From the ESE at 3.3 MPH Gusting to 6.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.78" (872.9 mb)|
Hi 58 °F
Hi 64 °F
Hi 70 °F
Hi 69 °F
Hi 69 °F
A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers between 8pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
A slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
across southern VA this morning. Rainfall has been spreading northward across the Mid-Atlantic states overnight as southerly flow transports moistures from the Gulf and Atlantic. Stable conditions are across the Mid-Atlantic region, north of the warm front and overrunning will continue with easterly flow in place at the sfc.
The cold front and warm front will pivot northeastward today and low pressure will transition to the Mid-Atlantic states. This will push most of the moisture/steady rain off the east coast this morning and a brief dry period is expected. As the low moves overhead and the warm sector moves northward into the region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form early this afternoon. The best shear profiles will likely be this morning while the best instability will be this afternoon. As showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon some thunderstorms may become strong to severe with the best chance early this afternoon where shear and instability will be co-located. Activity will move east-northeast today.
There is uncertainty as to how far north the warm sector gets today and places near the Mason Dixon line may not see the chance for thunderstorms until late this afternoon and by then they should be sub-severe. Best chance for strong to severe storms will be east of the Blue Ridge Mtns and south of I-66/MD-50 today. Gusty winds and hail are the main threats today.
Low pressure will move to the north this evening and convection will come to an end. A closed upper low will move overhead this evening and the chance for showers will persist overnight. Remnants from the upper low will persist across the region Friday however the sun should peak out of the clouds by afternoon. The chance for showers will persist across the Highlands through Friday afternoon. Temps will range from the L70s across the Highlands to the U70s across the low-lying areas Friday.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will briefly move into the Mid-Atlantic region Fri night-Sat morning. A warm front is expected to approach the region during this time and clouds will increase from west to east through Sat morning. The front will settle across the region by Sat night and showers will return to the region by this time. Uncertainity exists regarding onset of showers Saturday. At this time...showers will likely move into the region from west to east through the afternoon.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will stall over the region Saturday night and will serve as focus for showers and t-storms. Latest Euro shows a strong signal for a t-storm complex to roll through the region late Sat into Sat evening. Given stationary nature of front and potential for training convection, heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding appear the biggest threat. Exact timing with convection as it is typically remains far from certain, but guidance suggest Sat afternoon and evening will be the best chance for active wx.
A stronger cdfnt will move through Sun night with more showers and t-storms Sun afternoon and evening. Given lack of strong instability, heavy rainfall appears the biggest threat.
Quieter and drier weather returns for next week as low pressure exits the region and westerly flow establishes.