|Dew Point:||48.7°F (9.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||-9999.00" (-338566.1 mb)|
Hi 56 °F
Hi 60 °F
Hi 67 °F
Hi 69 °F
Hi 65 °F
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. West wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers likely, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers likely, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
840 FXUS61 KRLX 250809 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 409 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017
SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances bring the chance for shower and storms over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...
An upper low pressure system will move east from the Ohio Valley, east across WV through tonight. This track could bring additional rainfall to the area. In fact, high resolution and synoptic models are in agreement on a strong vorticity max that will sweep across the area this afternoon.
Soils across the southern half of WV are near saturated, and the area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. It will take less rainfall to produce flooding problems. Therefore, issued a Flash Flood Watch for counties across central and southern WV, and extreme southwest VA through this evening.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Thursday...
Upper level low will finally be well off to our northeast by Friday morning. Still could see some showers across the mountains until ridging builds in later in the day. Brief ridging will give way to more unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. A stationary boundary sets up from west to east across the area and this will be the focus for showers and storms through the weekend as several shortwave traverse the zonal flow. Still quite a bit of uncertainty for Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate very decent instability with generally 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of fat CAPE with EML basically overhead. However, it appears like there may be ongoing convection in the morning and not sure how this will affect convective development later in the day. Will weak short wave impulse that will pass later in the afternoon/evening be enough of a kicker to break the cap and kick off storms? Nonetheless, like I have mentioned the last couple of mornings, there is a chance for widespread severe storms Saturday afternoon with the ingredients that will be in place.
Flash flooding also is looking like a real possibility as the convection and already low FFG values is not what we want to see anytime, let alone on a holiday weekend when campsites will likely be full. For now we will just have to continue to monitor as the forecast unfolds over the next couple days.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM Thursday...
Models continue to highlight more showers and storms on Sunday through Monday as deep trough approaches from the west. However, the guidance has bounced around a bit on the timing of this feature, leading to low confidence in the forecast for days 4 through 7. Will stick with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for now. The main concern is definitely going to be flash flooding, as we are really going to see our share of rainfall leading up to the passage of this upper trough/cold front. Will start highlighting this in the HWO as well as possible severe storms mentioned in the short term.