Wintergreen Resort

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Wintergreen, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front will cross the area late tonight. High pressure will then build over the region Sunday through Tuesday. A strong cold front will pass through the area later Wednesday into Thursday and Canadian high pressure will build overhead late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Aside from a few weak radar returns showing up in Highland County, all showers have generally subsided for the evening. A cold front will cross the area overnight with few-sct clouds accompanying this feature. Areas of fog, locally dense, will be possible again tonight mainly west of State Route 15. Tonight's low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid/upper 60s inside I-95, with mid/upper 50s across mountain locales.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Ridge of high pressure will build at the sfc and aloft over the region Sunday through Tuesday and support fair weather conditions. With sfc high pressure off the New England coast, a light easterly flow will develop and likely result in areas of low clouds/fog each morning especially areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Tuesday, high pressure will be pushing off to the east with an approaching strong upper-level trough moving eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic and NE regions. Expect most of Tuesday to be dry with only a few isolated showers possible, mainly in the far western regions as a weaker front could pass through during the day but there more than likely will not be a lot of moisture with it.

As we head into Wednesday, a cold front associated with the upper trough continues eastward into the CWA. Timing for this system is still a bit in the air with some guidance having a more progressive approach while others bring a gradual arrival even into Thursday afternoon rather than earlier on Wednesday. Shear continues to look very favorable for this system while instability remains in question. Severe and hydro threat potential remains nonzero but there is still a lot that would need to unfold for a potential severe outbreak. Nonetheless, expect showers and thunderstorms to form ahead of the impending cold front with some possibly becoming severe if environmental conditions become favorable.

Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to trend down to more fall like conditions. May even see the potential for some frost across the Allegheny Front on Thursday night. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler than previous days into the weekend as a large upper level low may cross the area, fall is upon us!

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