Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure continues to build in, bringing a long stretch of dry, cool early Autumn weather through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 538 PM Saturday...

Decided to lower overnight lows quite a bit based on latest MOS guidance, which seems to have a good handle on the strong radiational cooling conditions that are expected tonight. As many areas decouple this evening, temperatures are expected to drop quickly and with current surface obs showing dewpoints in the low to mid 30s across our northern counties, thinking more areas will be vulnerable to frost development overnight than previous forecast anticipated. Thus, decided to expand the Frost Advisory to include Harrison, Taylor, Barbour, southeast Webster, and northwest Randolph counties.

As of 145 PM Saturday...

High pressure continues to keep the area dry and skies mostly clear throughout the area. There is some lingering cloud cover along the southern portions of the area where lower level moisture is present, however these clouds should continue to clear out this evening into tonight as this moisture moves out. Temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 40s for the lowlands, and mid to upper 30s for the mountains. Some areas do get cold enough to potentially have some frost tonight. Additionally, winds will be relatively light/calm tonight, along with the clear skies, which should assist with frost formation in these areas. Thus, a Frost Advisory was issued for Pocahontas County and the southeast Randolph County tonight through 8 AM on Sunday, with the greatest possibility for frost along the eastern portions of these counties. Sunday will continue to be dry and should be slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the lowlands and in the 50s to lower 60s for the highest terrain. Upper level ridging begins to move into the area by the end of the period, assisting with keeping the dry and fair weather in place over the area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 208 PM Saturday...

No major changes noted to the forecast. Broad sfc high pressure should shift east over New England, continuing its influence over the local area resulting in fair weather. At H500, models suggest a ridging will try to form on Monday, but it appears to be short lived. Model soundings indicate very dry column, acting to prevent any precipitation through the period.

H850 temperatures will be around 6C, together with clear skies and dry airmass in place, radiational cooling could drop temperatures into the mid to lower 30s across our northeast mountains Sunday and Monday nights. These conditions could produce areas of frost which will require Frost advisories for these sections. Overall, temperatures will stay few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 208 PM Saturday...

A strong sfc high pressure and weak ridging at H500 will build overhead by mid week. This pattern will keep weather conditions cool and dry with high temperatures around or below normal, generally around 71 degrees lowlands Monday, with a gradual warming towards the end of the week. Lows will range from the mid to lower 40s lowlands, to the mid 30s highest elevations Sunday and Monday nights.

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