... High pressure through Monday. Warming trend with disturbances middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM Sunday...
A high pressure system will bring dry weather to the area through Monday. With light winds tonight, expect lows in the low to mid 40s, with some mid to upper 30s in the northern West Virginia mountains. Can't rule out a few patches of frost in the protected valleys away from rivers and cities in the northern West Virginia mountains. With the ground fairly warm however, think the potential is too limited for an advisory.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday...
One more cooler and dry day is expected Monday before surface high pressure begins exiting to the east as upper level ridging over the central of the country gradually shifts east, turning low level flow more southwesterly and beginning to advect warm and humid air back into the region. Models in reasonable in agreement in some manner of ridge riding convective complex dropping southeast along the lee side of the ridge late Monday night. Remnants from this feature glance our northeastern WV counties early Tuesday morning, although this should be moving into a much less favorable convective environment by the time it arrives yielding just some rain showers.
Despite sitting in a mainly open warm sector with hot and humid conditions Tuesday afternoon, rather poor lapse rates likely stifle significant afternoon convection, except perhaps across our northern couple tiers of counties where a plume of steeper rates sourced from the Desert Southwest begins to work into the region as it rides around the deamplifying ridge across the center of the country.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday...
Generally weaker mid-level flow is expected through the remainder of the week as the upper ridge deamplifies. Operational GFS/EC continue to bring a W-E oriented plume of 1.5 to 2 inch precipitable water values pooling ahead of a slow moving cold frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday with at least some heavier rain potential with slow moving rain showers across the area. Ensemble means generally suggest 1 to perhaps 2 inches of rainfall with the highest amounts across our northern zones Thursday and central zones Thursday night into Friday morning as the front slowly sags south. Will likely see diurnally enhanced convection in the main line along the slow moving front Thursday afternoon, with perhaps some more pulse type activity north of the main band with better insolation. Despite rather weak flow with deep layer shear at or below 30KTs at least some hail along with some locally heavy downpours would be possible if this pulse type activity does develop.
Given recent drier conditions and slower nature of the fall of precipitation, think high water concerns will mainly be confined to typical trouble spots. This will be something to keep an eye on though, especially if it looks like the front is more likely to stall over any particular spot or slow moving pulse type convection sits over an area that received previous significant rain.
Organized precipitation chances fade for the weekend as the front exits south, but hot and humid conditions remain with diurnal showers/thunderstorms likely remaining on the menu.