Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Showers/thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening. Storms will taper off overnight as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures will follow for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 950 PM Friday...

Cold front is pushing across the area this evening with some showers and thunderstorms along and in advance of the front. Only minor changes to the package this evening.

As of 700 PM Friday...

Will update the forecast to better handle pops this evening as the cold front pushes across the area.

As of 145 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorm have rapidly developed with the heat of the day across most of the area. Do anticipate this trend to continue ahead of a shortwave that moves across area overnight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible given the MUCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. Damaging winds will be the main threat from any storm that does become severe. More widespread severe is not expected as shear is marginal.

Storms will subside overnight as daytime heating is lost. By Saturday, temperatures will return to more normal levels for this time of year. Any remaining showers will be confined to the northern mountains as upper system pulls away from the Mid Atlantic. Given the dry air in place, have decided not to include any POPs for the daytime.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...

The second half of the weekend appears unsettled as models show a well defined shortwave crossing the Ohio Valley with a decent surface wave and cold front progged to enter our region during peak heating Sunday afternoon. Shear and instability will likely be sufficient for a severe weather threat and will continue to highlight that potential in the HWO.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...

Models show strong upper level ridge building into the region although there are some model differences with how fast heights rise and the amplitude of the ridge. There is also the potential for convective complexes to mess with temperatures as shortwaves traverse the ridge. A return to hot temperatures is likely, but uncertainty abounds and with this in mind, largely accepted the model blend. This brings a warm up from the low to mid 80s on Monday into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. A few showers and storms will be possible on Monday, and the potential for storms exists again Wednesday through Friday due to the aforementioned thunderstorm complex potential.

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